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Stacy: EXPE Shows Travel Boom Intact, Discretionary Spend "Reckoning" to be Seen
Youtubeยท 2025-11-07 17:09
Core Insights - Expedia has reached a new all-time high after exceeding earnings expectations and raising full-year sales guidance, with gross bookings up 12% year-over-year and revenue increasing by 9% in the quarter [1][5][22] - Piper Sandler upgraded Expedia's shares to neutral from underweight following the positive earnings report, resulting in a 17% increase in share price [1][22] - The travel sector shows a mixed performance, with other companies like Airbnb and Trip Advisor experiencing declines after their earnings reports [2][3] Company Performance - Expedia's business-to-business growth is notable, indicating that this segment is not facing the same credit and liquidity challenges as the consumer sector [4][5] - The company outperformed competitors like Airbnb and Booking.com in terms of room bookings, surprising investors [5] - Year-to-date, Expedia's stock has risen approximately 40%, reflecting strong market performance [9][22] Market Context - The overall travel industry is experiencing varied results, with airlines and cruise lines also showing mixed demand trends [6] - There are concerns regarding discretionary spending among consumers, particularly among subprime borrowers, which could impact future growth [8] - The potential government shutdown may disrupt travel operations, although current flight cancellations remain low at about 3% [10][11][13] Trading Strategies - A trading strategy involving a neutral to bearish stance on Expedia has been suggested, taking advantage of the stock's recent highs and potential consolidation [16][22] - The strategy includes selling slightly out-of-the-money call options to manage risk while capitalizing on the stock's upward movement [17][20]