Core Insights - Sugar prices have shown a recovery from early losses, influenced by a weaker dollar and short covering in futures markets [2] - The global sugar supply outlook remains robust, with projected surpluses impacting price levels [2][4] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 increased by +0.25 (+1.60%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 rose by +3.30 (+0.74%) [1] - NY sugar reached a 3-week low earlier in the day, and London sugar hit a 4.25-year nearest-futures low [2] Supply Dynamics - BMI Group forecasts a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimates a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region fell by -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT through mid-September [3] India’s Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production is projected to rise by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating favorable conditions for sugar crop production [4] Export and Ethanol Production Factors - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may not sufficiently alleviate the sugar surplus [5] - Indian sugar mills are expected to export up to 4 MMT of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 MMT [5]