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PACIFIC BASIN(02343) - 2025 Q1 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-04-17 11:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, market spot rates for Handysize and Supramax vessels averaged $8,000 and $7,900 net per day, respectively, representing a decrease of 24% to 36% compared to the same period in 2024 [3][4] - Average Handysize and Supramax daily time charter equivalent earnings were $10,940 and $12,210 per day, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11% [6][8] - The cash breakeven level for owned Handysize and Supramax vessels is $5,780 and $6,200, respectively, ensuring positive cash flow generation [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global minor bulk loadings increased by approximately 2% year-on-year, driven by higher loading of bauxite, cement, and clinker [4] - Global grain loadings decreased by 16% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced Chinese demand and harvest delays in Brazil [4][5] - Global coal loadings dropped by 5% year-on-year, with a notable 11% decline in seaborne coal volumes to China [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Baltic Exchange Forward Freight Agreement average rates for the remainder of 2025 are projected at $9,120 for Handysize and $9,860 for Supramax vessels [3] - Global iron ore loadings declined by 7% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced Australian iron ore loadings caused by cyclones [6][10] - The global dry bulk fleet is projected to grow by 3.4% in 2025, outpacing demand growth [12][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to grow and renew its fleet, maintaining a disciplined approach amidst market uncertainties [19][20] - In Q1 2025, the company added larger and younger vessels to its fleet while selling older vessels as part of its renewal strategy [19] - The company has ordered four dual fuel methanol newbuildings for delivery in 2028 and 2029, aligning with industry decarbonization targets [20][21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The near-term bulk market demand outlook is clouded by uncertainties from increasing trade and geopolitical tensions, but potential shifts in trade flows could provide support [10][11] - The company expects some support from ASEAN countries for coal demand, while iron ore demand may remain under pressure due to reduced Chinese domestic demand [11][15] - Management believes that the versatility of the dry bulk trade could lead to increased tonne mile demand as trade flows shift [17][18] Other Important Information - The company has a solid balance sheet that allows for growth opportunities amidst market uncertainties [23] - The IMO's midterm measures are seen as a positive step for the shipping industry, supporting the company's investments in cleaner technologies [21][63] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market expectations for the rest of the year - Management indicated that the market is expected to remain volatile, with a focus on positioning for potential fluctuations in demand and supply [29][35] Question: Impact of USTR on vessel values - Management noted that 70% of the fleet is Japanese built, which may present opportunities amidst regulatory changes, although the exact impact remains uncertain [40][42] Question: Secondhand prices and buyback program - Management acknowledged a slight improvement in secondhand prices recently and confirmed the continuation of the share buyback program, believing the shares are undervalued [51][52] Question: Trade shifts and M&A opportunities - Management observed a shift in trade patterns due to uncertainties around tariffs, and expressed openness to M&A opportunities while prioritizing organic growth [72][78]