Supply Chain Reshuffle
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中芯国际-短期需求无重大变化 -存储价格是 2026 年终端需求展望的关键变量;维持 “中性” 评级
2025-11-18 09:41
Summary of SMIC Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) - **Ticker**: 0981.HK - **Industry**: Semiconductor Foundry Key Points Demand and Market Outlook - **Near-term Demand**: No material change expected in near-term demand, with full loadings anticipated in a seasonally slower 4Q25E due to supply chain localization and domestic customer share gains [1][2] - **Memory Prices**: Memory prices are a critical factor influencing the end-demand outlook for 2026E, with management expressing concerns about memory shortages impacting handset and consumer electronics production [1][2] - **Customer Planning**: Customers are cautious in their 2026 business planning due to uncertainties regarding adequate memory supply [1][2] Financial Performance and Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: Revenue projections for FY25F, FY26F, and FY27F are largely unchanged, with slight adjustments made to gross margin (GM) and operating profit margin (OPM) reflecting efficiency gains [1][3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Revised EPS for 2026F and 2027F increased by 20% and 29% respectively, reflecting the anticipated 100% net profit consolidation of SMNC starting from 2Q26F [1][3] - **Target Price (TP)**: The target price has been raised to HKD75.0, based on a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 3.5x for 2026F [1][4] Financial Metrics - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth rates are 15.2% for FY25F, 18.1% for FY26F, and 12.0% for FY27F [3][9] - **Profitability Ratios**: - Gross margin expected to improve to 21.1% in FY25F and 21.7% in FY26F [3][16] - Operating margin projected at 10.9% for FY25F and 9.4% for FY26F [3][16] - **Net Profit**: Expected net profit for FY25F is USD590 million, increasing to USD734 million in FY26F [3][9] Capital Expenditure and Capacity - **Capex Plans**: SMIC plans to maintain a capex budget of USD7.5 billion for 2025E, similar to 2024 levels, with capacity additions expected to be uneven quarter to quarter [2][3] - **Supply and Competition**: SMIC will add more supply into 2026E, driven by domestic semiconductor localization demand, but will not engage in aggressive pricing unless necessary [2][3] Risks and Challenges - **Upside Risks**: Include better-than-expected end-demand, slower-than-expected technology migration by competitors, successful mergers and acquisitions, and increased policy support from the Chinese government [12][24] - **Downside Risks**: Include weak end-demand and intensifying geopolitical issues [24] Additional Insights - **Market Capitalization**: As of November 14, 2025, SMIC's market cap is approximately USD56.76 billion [4][8] - **Stock Performance**: The stock has shown significant growth over the past year, with a 12-month absolute return of 176.8% [8] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the SMIC conference call, highlighting the company's outlook, financial performance, and market dynamics.
SAP SE (SAP) Presents at BNP Paribas Exane 27th CEO Conference Call Transcript
Seeking Alpha· 2025-06-03 16:29
Group 1 - The current operating environment is characterized by uncertainty, prompting companies to reassess their supply chains and decision-making processes [3][4] - Companies are seeking more transparency and data integration to navigate through uncertainty, indicating a demand for solutions that combine financial data with risk management [4]