Core Insights - The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) has achieved an impressive 86% return over the past year, indicating a significant shift in copper's role in the global economy [1] - Factors driving the increase in copper prices are expected to persist into 2026 [1] Group 1: Trade Policy and Market Dynamics - Changes in trade policy have significantly impacted the competitive landscape for domestic copper producers, particularly affecting major holdings like Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper, which together represent nearly 10% of COPX's portfolio [2] - Monitoring monthly copper price reports from the London Metal Exchange and quarterly earnings from major miners is essential to assess pricing power [2] Group 2: Performance of Holdings - The strong performance of COPX is not solely attributed to its largest positions; smaller international holdings, including Canadian and Chilean miners, have also contributed to exceptional returns due to tightening global supply constraints [3] - The ETF consists of 41 companies, with the top ten holdings accounting for 59% of the portfolio [4] Group 3: Future Projections - Copper consumption is projected to reach 43 million metric tonnes by 2050, representing a 65% increase from 2022 levels, driven by sectors such as electric vehicles, renewable energy storage, and AI infrastructure [4] - It is important to monitor the fund's monthly holdings updates and quarterly rebalancing to see if management shifts towards higher-conviction positions as valuations adjust [4] Group 4: Alternative Investment Options - For investors looking for broader metals exposure with lower fees, the iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK) is a viable alternative, offering a 0.39% expense ratio and 14% copper exposure alongside other metals [6] - PICK holds diversified miners like BHP, Rio Tinto, and Freeport-McMoRan, providing sector exposure without the concentrated risk associated with pure-play copper investments [6] Group 5: Key Factors to Monitor - The primary macro factor for 2026 is whether copper prices remain high amid changing trade policies, while the key micro factor is the performance of COPX's smaller international holdings in the context of ongoing supply deficits [7]

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