Albemarle (ALB) Stock Analysis - Beimo Capital Markets has an outperform rating and a $125 target on Albemarle (ALB), approximately 50% higher than its current price [1] - The target price is based on an eight and a half times EBITDA multiple applied to a midcycle lithium price of around $15,000 per ton [2] Lithium Market Dynamics - The lithium market is currently experiencing a surplus due to excessive production, particularly from China [2][3] - Lithium prices previously fell to around 60,000 RMB (Chinese Yuan) a ton, equivalent to $8,000 USD a ton [3] - Demand for lithium has been growing at approximately 20% annually, but is expected to decrease to the mid-teens as EV markets mature [4][5] - The current lithium surplus is estimated to be between 100,000 and 150,000 tons [5] Albemarle's Strategy and Risks - Albemarle has been cutting costs and growth capital expenditure in response to the challenging market conditions [7][8] - A key risk for Albemarle is that lithium prices remain below marginal costs for an extended period, potentially leading to further cuts in capital expenditure and growth projects [9] - If Albemarle experiences no volume growth after 2027, its valuation multiple could decrease [9]