Market Overview - Bitcoin price remains stagnant entering 2026, showing a slight decline of about 0.6% over the past 30 days and down approximately 7% year on year, indicating a stalemate between buyers and sellers [1] - The market is currently trapped within a symmetrical triangle pattern, reflecting the ongoing tussle between lower highs and higher lows, with capital flows not favoring an upward movement [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has been trending lower since December 10, indicating a bearish divergence as BTC price increased while CMF recorded lower lows, suggesting continued outflows and selling pressure [3] - Despite negative capital flow, exchange outflows have increased significantly, from about 16,563 BTC on December 19 to 38,508 BTC by January 1, marking a rise of approximately 132%, which may support price stability [4][5] Smart Money Insights - The Smart Money Index indicates indecision among larger, informed traders, as it remains close to its signal line without clear separation, suggesting that these traders are awaiting a breakout [6] - The overall market remains neutral until a breakout occurs, with CMF and exchange flow data indicating conflicting signals that keep BTC price stable [7] Price Levels and Resistance - The cost basis heat map reveals significant clusters of buyers, with the nearest resistance zone identified between $88,082 and $88,459, where approximately 200,035 BTC are located [8] - Bitcoin is currently trading near $87,480, and a daily close about 1% higher could breach the resistance zone, potentially acting as a bullish trigger for an upper triangle breakout, with a critical level at $88,300 that needs to be surpassed [9]