Core Insights - The current market rally has potential for further gains, with bears missing their opportunity for a significant pullback [2][3] - Seasonal trends from November to January typically yield strong returns, supported by the current technical environment [2] Technical Analysis - Key support levels for the S&P 500 remain intact, with major moving averages being respected [3] - The year-end target for the S&P 500 is set at approximately 7,000, a significant psychological level [3] Sector Performance - There is no indication of a classic "risk-off" sector leadership emerging, with major tech stocks like Google and Nvidia maintaining strength [6] - Energy is emerging as a new risk-off indicator, while staples and healthcare are stabilizing but not leading [5][6] Market Outlook - The market is expected to grind higher into year-end, but caution is advised for 2026 due to potential challenges from the presidential cycle and inflation risks [7][9] - Historical data suggests that second-year returns average only about 3.3% since 1928, with a notable lack of positive returns under Republican administrations [9] Strategic Approach - The company emphasizes a reactionary approach to market movements rather than predictive forecasting, focusing on price and positioning [8] - Investors are advised to buy dips that hold above major moving averages and prepare for elevated volatility [11]

Core Viewpoint - Price increases driven by tariffs are expected to be temporary, as indicated by Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, who also supports further interest-rate cuts in response to a slowing labor market [1] Group 1 - The Philadelphia Fed President suggests that the impact of tariff-driven price increases will not be long-lasting [1] - There is a call for additional interest-rate cuts this year to address the challenges posed by a slowing labor market [1]