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ARCC vs. HTGC: Which BDC Has More Upside as Rates Come Down?
ZACKSยท 2025-09-24 14:31
Core Viewpoint - Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) and Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) are two prominent Business Development Companies (BDCs) with differing investment strategies, where ARCC targets middle-market firms and HTGC focuses on high-growth technology and life sciences sectors [1][2] Group 1: Ares Capital (ARCC) - ARCC's investments typically range from $30 million to $500 million, with power generation projects between $10 million and $200 million, offering customized financing solutions primarily in senior secured debt [3] - In the first half of 2025, ARCC experienced year-over-year growth in total investment income, driven by increased interest income and capital structuring service fees [4] - Over the past five years, ARCC's total investment income has grown at a CAGR of 14.4%, with gross investment commitments of $15.1 billion in 2024 and $6 billion in 2023 [5] - As of June 30, 2025, ARCC's diversified investment portfolio was valued at $27.9 billion across more than 560 companies, with significant investments in software & services (24%) and healthcare equipment & services (13%) [6] - Analysts have revised ARCC's earnings estimates downward, indicating a 13.7% decline for 2025 and a 0.9% decline for 2026 [12][15] - ARCC's stock is currently trading at a 12-month forward P/E of 10.40X, reflecting a premium valuation [20] Group 2: Hercules Capital (HTGC) - HTGC's investments generally range from $15 million to $40 million, focusing on structured debt with warrants and targeting companies with at least six months to one year of operational history [7] - In the first half of 2025, HTGC saw slight growth in total investment income and an increase in gross new debt and equity commitments [8] - Over the last decade, HTGC's total investment income has grown at a CAGR of 12.1%, with new debt and equity commitments of $2.6 billion in 2021 and $3.1 billion in 2022 [9] - As of June 30, 2025, HTGC's investment portfolio was valued at $4.2 billion, with 35% in software companies and 25% in drug discovery & development [11] - Analysts are more optimistic about HTGC's prospects, with a projected 4% decline in 2025 earnings but a 5% growth expected in 2026 [15] - HTGC is trading at a lower 12-month forward P/E of 9.66X compared to ARCC, making it a more attractive valuation [20][23] Group 3: Comparative Analysis - The operating environment is improving, positioning HTGC for long-term growth due to its focus on high-growth sectors, rising investment commitments, and projected earnings growth for 2026 [24] - ARCC's broader industry exposure makes it more susceptible to tariff-related risks, while its diversified portfolio offers income stability [25] - Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook [26]