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3月电视面板行情:美国关税大棒落下,面板价格涨幅或收窄
CINNO Research· 2025-03-07 05:43
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariff policies on the LCD TV panel market, highlighting a strong domestic demand driven by the "old-for-new" policy and brand preparations for new product launches, while also noting potential declines in overseas demand due to increased tariffs [3][4]. Market Dynamics and Tariff Impact - In February, the delay of U.S. tariffs on Mexico allowed brands to prepare for overseas market stocking, while domestic demand remained strong due to the continuation of the "old-for-new" subsidy policy [3]. - The implementation of a 25% tariff on Mexican goods and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports is expected to slow down overseas market demand, creating a "cold outside, hot inside" market dynamic [3][4]. Demand Side Analysis - The "old-for-new" policy has boosted market confidence, prompting brands to prepare for new product launches in 2025, with some brands advancing their release schedules [3]. - Despite rising panel prices, they remain lower compared to the same period last year, leading to increased domestic demand as brands stock up for the upcoming 618 shopping festival [3]. - The new tariffs will raise costs for TV panels exported to the U.S., potentially leading to higher retail prices and reduced consumer demand in the U.S. market [3][4]. Supply Side Dynamics - In February, panel orders increased, with domestic high-generation production lines operating at over 85% capacity [4]. - Due to the anticipated decline in overseas demand from tariff impacts, Chinese panel manufacturers may reduce production rates to manage supply [4]. - Increased tariffs will raise operational and logistics costs for U.S. market orders, potentially compressing profit margins [4]. March LCD TV Panel Price Forecast - CINNO Research predicts a narrowing increase in panel prices for March, with small price hikes of $1 for mainstream sizes (32" to 65") compared to February [5]. - Larger sizes (75" and 85") are expected to see a $2 increase due to stronger domestic demand, with prices projected to reach $231 and $312 respectively [5].