Core Viewpoint - The anticipated "Santa Claus rally" in the stock market has not yet begun, and recent market movements are primarily a reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts rather than seasonal trends [1][2]. Market Activity - Financial media often misattribute December rallies to the Santa Claus effect, overlooking that the likelihood of a rally before Christmas is no better than at other times of the year, and may even be worse [2][4]. - Historical data shows that the average trailing five-day return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average does not significantly increase until the last week of December, with negative returns observed in the middle of the month [4]. Seasonal Trends - The real Santa Claus rally is theorized to begin after Christmas, as tax-loss selling typically concludes by that time, leading to upward market pressure [4]. - Current market conditions suggest a downward trend until just before Christmas due to ongoing tax-loss selling, which is prevalent in the weeks leading up to the holiday [4]. Investment Strategy - It is emphasized that labeling every year-end rally as a Santa Claus rally is a form of sloppy thinking, which is detrimental to sound investment strategies [5].