Market Overview - Bitcoin has surpassed last year's low of approximately 80,000, currently trading around 93,300 after reaching a peak of 97,000, reflecting a nearly 7% year-to-date gain [1] - This rally has positively influenced other cryptocurrencies, bringing Bitcoin closer to levels that have historically capped previous rallies since November [1] Catalysts for Price Increase - Analysts from NYDIG Research and Wintermute attribute the price increase to geopolitical risks and a structural shift in capital flows within the crypto market, identifying these as major catalysts for potential further price increases [2] - Political instability in the United States, particularly the tensions surrounding Donald Trump and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, is highlighted as a significant short-term driver of Bitcoin's price [3] Historical Context - Historical instances of political interference in U.S. monetary policy have led to negative outcomes such as higher inflation and weakened currencies, suggesting that Bitcoin may be benefiting from current investor concerns regarding similar risks [4] Macro Environment - The global money supply has reached an all-time high, providing support for Bitcoin prices, while precious metals have seen significant price increases, indicating a broader macroeconomic context [5] - Despite distinct macro dynamics, both gold and Bitcoin serve as non-sovereign stores of value, with Bitcoin potentially catching up as a result of current market conditions [6] Market Overhangs - The end of tax-loss selling at the beginning of the year has contributed to the reduction of market overhangs, which previously pressured prices [6] - Additionally, liquidations on October 10 left exchanges with unhedged long positions, which contributed to downward price pressure as these positions were sold off [7]

Market Overview - Bitcoin is trading around $87,000 as of the final weekend of 2025, with investors showing caution due to thin liquidity and tax-driven selling [1] - Bitcoin's current price is $87,351.16, while Ethereum is at $2,923.07, Solana at $122.01, XRP at $1.84, Dogecoin at $0.1221, and Shiba Inu at $0.057119 [2] Technical Analysis - Key technical level for Bitcoin is its 20-month moving average; a monthly close above $90,000 could confirm bullish momentum and target prices in the $105,000–$110,000 range [3] - Bitcoin's monthly trend indicator has turned bullish for the first time since March 2023, indicating potential improvement in the broader trend despite current volatility [5] Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is one of the few major assets down for the year, leading investors to sell BTC to offset taxes from gains in other assets, increasing downside pressure [4] - A critical support level for Bitcoin is identified at $85,200; a sustained break below this level could lead to accelerated losses [4] Liquidation and Outflows - Recent data shows 93,477 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours, amounting to $244.46 million [7] - There were net outflows of $175.3 million from spot Bitcoin ETFs and $52.7 million from spot Ethereum ETFs on Wednesday [7]

Core Viewpoint - The anticipated "Santa Claus rally" in the stock market has not yet begun, and recent market movements are primarily a reaction to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts rather than seasonal trends [1][2]. Market Activity - Financial media often misattribute December rallies to the Santa Claus effect, overlooking that the likelihood of a rally before Christmas is no better than at other times of the year, and may even be worse [2][4]. - Historical data shows that the average trailing five-day return for the Dow Jones Industrial Average does not significantly increase until the last week of December, with negative returns observed in the middle of the month [4]. Seasonal Trends - The real Santa Claus rally is theorized to begin after Christmas, as tax-loss selling typically concludes by that time, leading to upward market pressure [4]. - Current market conditions suggest a downward trend until just before Christmas due to ongoing tax-loss selling, which is prevalent in the weeks leading up to the holiday [4]. Investment Strategy - It is emphasized that labeling every year-end rally as a Santa Claus rally is a form of sloppy thinking, which is detrimental to sound investment strategies [5].