Core Insights - The IRS anticipates that 164 million individuals will file tax returns by April 15, with an average refund projected to be $1,000 higher than last year's average of $3,167 due to changes in tax law [1] Group 1: Tax Filing and Refunds - The IRS processed over 165 million individual income tax returns last year, with 94% submitted electronically [1] - Taxpayers filing electronically can expect to receive their refunds in 21 days or less, while paper returns may take four weeks or more [3] - The IRS advises against relying on receiving refunds by specific dates, especially for major purchases or bill payments [4] Group 2: IRS Workforce and Challenges - The IRS has experienced a significant reduction in workforce, starting 2025 with approximately 102,000 employees and ending with around 74,000 due to firings and layoffs [3] - The national taxpayer advocate has warned that the 2026 tax filing season may present challenges for taxpayers encountering issues, attributed to the exodus of IRS workers since the Trump administration [2] Group 3: Refund Status and Tools - Taxpayers can check the status of their refunds using the online tool "Where's My Refund?" within 24 hours of e-filing or generally within four weeks of filing a paper return [4] - The IRS2Go app and IRS Individual Online Account are additional resources for checking refund status [5] - To qualify for a refund, taxpayers must file a return, and they have three years to claim a tax refund [5]

Core Insights - A significant portion of Americans (67%) anticipate that upcoming tax law changes will personally affect them in 2026, although many lack clarity on the implications of these changes for their finances [1][3] Awareness and Understanding - 46% of surveyed individuals are aware of the new provisions under the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), but 56% of this group do not understand how these changes apply to their tax situation [2] - Overall, 84% of respondents pay attention to tax law shifts, yet only 55% actively seek specifics, with 41% doing little to no research on tax changes [3] Confidence in Tax Knowledge - Respondents reported varying levels of confidence in their tax literacy, with 59% feeling they have a basic understanding of income tax calculations, but only 16% of women and 25% of men consider themselves highly confident in their tax knowledge [4] - Younger adults, particularly 31% of Gen Z participants, are more likely to claim a strong understanding of the tax system [5] Expectations and Financial Planning - Despite the anticipated reforms, over half (52%) of respondents expect their tax liability and refund this year to be similar to last year's amounts [5] - On average, taxpayers forecast a refund of $1,662, which is slightly lower than the previous year's expectations, with 57% planning to use their refund for essential expenses rather than discretionary purchases [6]

Economic Outlook - The US economists project a growth rate of approximately 1.9% for the next year, indicating a focus on downside risks related to labor [2] - Tax law changes, including potential tax incentives and refunds, are expected to influence economic conditions positively, potentially leading to a stronger growth environment [3][4] Inflation Trends - Headline inflation is anticipated to remain contained, with oil prices expected to stabilize around $60 and food prices potentially decreasing due to tariff adjustments [4] - Core inflation may remain sticky or even decline, despite stronger growth, particularly in the services sector [5] Market Projections - The S&P 500 target for the next year is set at 7700, representing an 11% increase from current levels, driven by expectations of continued AI investment and a cyclical recovery [5][7] - This projection suggests the potential for a fourth consecutive year of double-digit gains for the S&P 500, which historically indicates a positive outlook for the market [8] AI and Earnings Growth - The role of AI is viewed as a significant factor in driving earnings growth, with expectations of a "beat and raise" scenario for many AI companies [6][7] - There is an anticipated broadening of earnings due to increased demand and supply dynamics related to AI adoption [7]

Core Insights - The SALT deduction cap has increased from $10,000 to $40,000 for tax years 2025 through 2029, providing new relief for taxpayers [1] - Charitable contributions are highlighted as an effective method to reduce tax liability, with new limitations on deductions set to take effect in 2026 [2][3] - Financial advisors emphasize the importance of year-end tax management strategies, particularly in light of new tax laws introduced by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act [5][6] Tax Deductions and Contributions - Charitable deductions will be capped at a 35% rate starting next year, prompting many clients to accelerate their charitable contributions into 2025 [3] - The full $40,000 SALT deduction begins phasing out at modified adjusted gross incomes of $500,000 for joint filers, reverting to $10,000 at $600,000 [6] - New tax deductions include up to $12,500 for qualified overtime pay and up to $10,000 for interest on auto loans for qualified vehicles purchased in 2025 [7] Tax-Loss Harvesting and Investment Strategies - Tax-loss harvesting is recommended as a strategy to offset ordinary income, not just capital gains, and should be revisited at year-end [8] - Investors are advised to consider their taxable brokerage accounts to manage taxes on interest, dividends, and capital gains effectively [8] - The crypto market presents unique tax management opportunities, allowing for the capture of losses without the wash-sale rule [10] Roth Conversions - Advisors suggest considering Roth conversions as a strategy to lock in future tax-free growth, especially in light of potential tax-bracket shifts [10][11] - Roth conversions are seen as beneficial for individuals in their 70s to prepay taxes at lower rates and manage required minimum distributions [11]

Sit down with your CPA after October 15th when he or she's done with all the tax returns. Try to get them to do a projection for 2025 and 2026 and then see what opportunities are out there. The one big beautiful bill act has rewritten the tax landscape in ways that extend well beyond the internal revenue code.And these ripple effects are already being felt across investment decisions, retirement planning, and long-term wealth strategies. In our podcast today, my guest Bob Keebler, a partner with Keebler and ...