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X @Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal· 2025-11-24 12:03
Macroeconomic Analysis - The "Magic Formula" indicates GDP growth is increasingly reliant on debt due to declining population and productivity growth [3] - Private sector debt remains around 120% of GDP, with the public sector at a similar level [3] - Economic growth is significantly consumed by servicing private-sector debts, rendering it unproductive [3] - Government debt growth is offsetting demographic decline [5] - Debt growth exceeding GDP is being monetized [6] - Liquidity is the primary driver in the current economic environment [8] Demographic Trends - Birth rates have been declining since the late 1950s, impacting the labor force participation rate [4] - The labor force participation rate is expected to continue declining due to structural demographic issues [4] - Aging populations and automation contribute to deflationary pressures [5] Monetary Policy & Investment Implications - Governments are issuing new debt to cover old interest, with central banks absorbing it through quantitative easing (QE) [7] - A substantial amount of interest needs to be monetized, exceeding GDP capacity [8] - Bitcoin thrives in a world of perpetual currency debasement [9]
X @Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal· 2025-09-25 14:22
In 10 mins we go live with The Everything Code Masterclass for an hour. I think it is our most important work. Live on X, YouTube and on Real Vision (AMA after will only be in Real Vision so sign up, its free!). @RealVision ...