ETF Market Trends & Flows - Gold ETFs are experiencing significant inflows, hitting record highs and surpassing S&P 500 ETFs in popularity, indicating a potentially bearish market sentiment [1][2] - Equity buying is prevalent, with interest in S&P 500, bonds, and internet ETFs, suggesting a mixed approach of seeking both growth and hedging [3] - Small-cap ETFs are seeing mixed interest, with initial buying followed by quick exits, while fundamentally or factor-weighted approaches are gaining traction [3][11] - Bitcoin ETFs are competing with gold as a store of value, with cumulative flows showing a dynamic race between the two asset classes [4] - Zero-fee funds are attracting the bulk of ETF inflows, with over $300 billion flowing into products costing 10 basis points or less [22] Active vs Passive ETF - Active ETFs are gaining traction, representing close to one-third of overall flows, with firms like Baron entering the space [2][15] - Fees may be less important for active ETFs, as investors prioritize performance and are willing to pay for active management and security selection [16][18] - Vanguard's active mutual funds have outperformed the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) at a higher rate than some peers, attributed to lower fees and less turnover [24][25] - The approval of semi-transparent or non-transparent ETFs was symbolically important but did not necessarily translate into assets [42] Vanguard's Strategy & Position - Vanguard is a leader in low-cost products and is expected to push active ETFs significantly, leveraging its substantial assets under management (approximately $14 trillion to $15 trillion) [20][29] - Vanguard may eventually allow a Bitcoin ETF to capture trends among younger investors [30] - Vanguard's outperformance in active management is linked to lower fees, which allows managers to take less risk and still deliver competitive returns [26][27] Megatrend ETF & Thematic Investing - Lazard Asset Management launched a Megatrends ETF (TMHZ) to capitalize on long-term trends like AI, health, consumer behavior, and data, with a 50 basis points fee [32][35] - Thematic ETFs can fit into model portfolios as tactical themes, and active management may improve client performance in this space compared to passive approaches [38][39] - The goal of megatrend investing is to access long-term themes that will play out over decades, differentiating it from individual themes with shorter lifecycles [40]