Group 1 - The VIX, which measures the implied volatility for the S&P 500, is currently influenced by upcoming holidays and is estimated to be between 18.12 and 19 [1][2] - Options prices are indicating an expectation of increased volatility, particularly with out-of-the-money puts and calls rising more than at-the-money options [3] - There is a sense of uncertainty in the market, reminiscent of last year's holiday season, where volatility increased after Thanksgiving [4] Group 2 - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to remain volatile, with no significant calm anticipated until later in the quarter [5] - Despite a calm surface, there is increased activity in options pricing, suggesting that market participants are alert to potential significant movements [6] - Macroeconomic uncertainties, such as upcoming announcements from the president, are contributing to elevated options prices on broad-based indices like the S&P 500 [7][8]