Core Insights - The Hyperliquid team released 1.75 million HYPE tokens to developers and core contributors, valued at over $60.4 million, marking the first anniversary of its significant airdrop [1] - The HYPE token price has decreased by more than 23% in the past month and nearly 5% in the last 24 hours [1] Token Unlocking and Historical Context - The recent unlocking of HYPE tokens is not considered unusual, as a previous event in November 2024 saw nearly 270 million tokens unlock, valued at approximately $9.5 billion [2] - Hyperliquid does not have any VC unlocks or investor vesting, indicating a community-focused approach [2] Token Distribution Details - The distribution of HYPE tokens included 170,619 to the founder-tier wallet, 1,049,986 to senior-tier wallets, and 99,998 to mid-tier wallets, totaling 1,745,746 HYPE [3] - Approximately 23.4% (609,100 HYPE) was sold OTC to Flowdesk, while around 9% was re-staked, and 35% remained untouched [4] Market Behavior and Projections - Restaking accounted for over 40% of core contributor allocations, with projections indicating that Hyperliquid may experience more buy-side flow than sell-side pressure by 2026 [5] - Modelled buy pressure is estimated to exceed $2.1 billion based on revenue, while potential sell pressure is around $598 million [5] Price Analysis - The HYPE token is currently within a falling wedge pattern, trading near its lower boundary and below the 200-day moving average [6] - A bullish breakout above the wedge's upper trendline could lead to a price increase towards the mid-$40 range, with key levels at $36 and $41 [6] - Conversely, a bearish scenario could occur if the price falls below the wedge support, potentially exposing the $30 zone [7]