Total Payment Volume (TPV)

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PayPal Q2 Earnings Preview: Should You Buy the Stock Now or Wait?
ZACKSยท 2025-07-28 16:51
Core Insights - PayPal (PYPL) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 29, with anticipated low to mid-single-digit revenue growth on a currency-neutral basis and non-GAAP earnings projected between $1.29 and $1.31 per share, indicating an 8-10% year-over-year growth [1][4][11] Revenue and Earnings Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter revenues is $8.10 billion, reflecting a 2.68% increase from the previous year [1] - For the full year 2025, the revenue estimate stands at $32.72 billion, suggesting a 2.90% year-over-year rise, while the consensus for full-year EPS is $5.10, indicating a 9.68% increase [4][11] Total Payment Volume (TPV) and Active Accounts - PayPal's Total Payment Volume (TPV) is projected at $434.45 billion, representing a 4.2% year-over-year growth, with active accounts expected to reach 438 million, up from 429 million [7][9] - The number of payment transactions is estimated at 6.722 billion, surpassing the previous year's figure of 6.580 billion [9] Transaction Margin and Value-Added Services - The consensus for transaction revenues is $7.31 billion, indicating a 2.1% increase year-over-year, while transaction margin dollars are expected to range between $3.75 billion and $3.8 billion, reflecting a 4.5% year-over-year increase at the midpoint [11][13] - Revenues from value-added services are projected at $766.91 million for the second quarter, up from $732.00 million in the previous year [12] Strategic Focus and Market Position - PayPal is focusing on portfolio strength, diversification, and balance sheet strength to support growth, with an emphasis on securing checkout leadership [6] - The company is transitioning from a transactional payment provider to a holistic commerce partner, enhancing user experience and expanding international capabilities [18][20] Competitive Landscape and Valuation - PayPal shares have declined 8.6% year-to-date, contrasting with the Zacks Financial Transaction Services' rise of 4.7% and the S&P 500's increase of 8.2% [15] - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month P/E of 14.35X, significantly lower than the industry average of 22.21X, indicating a potentially attractive entry point for investors [17]