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花旗:全球宏观策略-关税变革者 - 贸易调整
花旗· 2025-05-15 15:24
Investment Rating - The report downgrades the EUR overweight to neutral [9][30]. Core Insights - The reduction of US tariffs on China from 145% to 30% effectively lowers the tariff rate from 25% to 12%, significantly altering the tactical risk landscape [2][3]. - The economic outlook in China appears more favorable, leading to adjustments in currency positions, particularly closing EURUSD longs and USDCNH call spreads [3][6]. - The de-escalation of trade tensions is expected to benefit small-cap equities, prompting the closure of short positions in RTY1 while maintaining a long position in VG1 [4][23]. - In commodities, the report suggests unwinding short positions in copper due to a positive growth outlook and downgrading precious metals from overweight to neutral due to potential risks in growth and USD strength [26][27][30]. Summary by Sections FX - The report indicates a shift in positioning, closing EURUSD longs and USDCNH call spreads, as the outlook for CNH depreciation diminishes [6][7]. - A structural EUR underweight and USD overweight may be trimmed over time, but the timeline for these adjustments is expected to be slow [7]. Rates - The report emphasizes the importance of hedging against US rates for various receivers in Canada, Norway, Mexico, and Brazil, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the US economy [13][16]. Equities - The report highlights the positive impact of de-escalation news on small-cap stocks, leading to the closure of short positions in RTY1 while remaining long in VG1 [4][23]. Commodities - The report suggests unwinding short copper positions due to a rebound in prices and a more favorable growth outlook, while also downgrading precious metals from overweight to neutral due to potential risks [26][27][30].