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下周财报季开锣,大摩预期北美银行“稳中有升”
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 11:02
近日,摩根士丹利针对北美大型银行2025年第三季度(3Q25)业绩前瞻与关键指标发布研报,将模型进行 调整,覆盖北美货币中心银行(美银、花旗、高盛、摩根大通等)、超级区域银行(PNC、地区金融公司 等)及信托银行(纽约梅隆银行、道富银行等)三类机构,为10月14日启动的银行财报季提供核心预测。 存款结构上,无息存款占比缓慢下降,如美银2025E 26.0%,2024年26.7%,计息存款成本逐步降低, 如美银2025E 2.23%,2024年2.61%,缓解息差压力。净息差(NIM)整体稳定,2025E中位数2.50%,超级 区域银行净息差较高,地区金融公司(RF.US)2025E为3.60%,信托银行较低,纽约梅隆银行 (BK.US)2025E为1.28%。 费用收入是核心增长动力之一,投行业务费增速显著超共识:M&A费用2025E同比增长30%,市场共识 增长11%,ECM费用同比增长41%,共识增长30%,DCM费用同比增长4%,市场共识增长3%;摩根大 通、高盛等货币中心银行手续费收入2025E同比增长超9%。拨备与不良资产方面,2025年拨备温和增 长,摩根大通2025E拨备122.12亿美元,同比 ...
花旗警告:在供应过剩的信号下,原油市场情绪正在转向看跌!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-10-09 09:42
花旗团队报告指出:"一些客户怀疑,布伦特原油每桶60美元的价格底线是否足以引发供需反应,来平 衡普遍被认为正走向过剩的全球液体燃料市场。" AI播客:换个方式听新闻下载mp3 花旗警告称,在市场出现供应过剩迹象之际,石油市场情绪正转向看跌。 花旗在向其客户提供的最新市场情绪更新中表示,石油市场参与者目前情绪悲观。然而,据彭博社援引 花旗的话称,看跌的程度有所不同。 另一方面,彭博社在本周初的另一篇报道中援引Vortexa的数据称,在运输中的原油数量表明供应过剩 即将来临。数据显示,目前全球海上有高达12亿桶原油正在运输中。 该媒体指出,这是至少自2016年以来的最高水平。不过,这个数字不包括浮动仓储中的原油,而交易商 在评估供应过剩可能性时,往往会密切关注浮仓存量。与此同时,亚洲仍在持续储备原油,吸收了今年 以来估计的大部分过剩供应。 花旗表示:"在能源综合体内,市场共识认为原油和天然气的基本面正变得越来越看跌,但地缘政治风 险使得大规模做空这些市场变得异常困难。" 另一方面,其他参与者则预期价格将进行更平缓的修正,他们指出世界部分地区(尽管不包括美国)正 在出现库存积累。 此外,花旗还提到,"当前非欧佩克+ ...
LG India’s $1.3 billion IPO subscribed fivefold on strong bids
BusinessLine· 2025-10-09 07:08
Core Insights - LG Electronics Inc. successfully launched a $1.3 billion initial public offering (IPO) for its Indian unit, which was five times subscribed, indicating strong demand from institutional and wealthy investors [1][2]. Investor Demand - Subscriptions from wealthy individuals reached 13 times the allocated shares, while qualified institutional investors subscribed at 2.7 times, retail investors at 2.5 times, and employees at 5.3 times [2]. IPO Details - The IPO involves the sale of 71.3 million shares priced between 1,080 rupees and 1,140 rupees each, potentially valuing LG Electronics India Ltd. at up to 774 billion rupees ($8.7 billion), making it a contender for India's largest listed home-appliance maker [3]. Market Context - The IPO reflects a strong and sustainable consumption story in India, as noted by LG's chief sales officer, highlighting 28 years of trust from Indian consumers and partners [4]. - This offering marks the fourth billion-dollar IPO in India for the year, contributing to the country becoming the world's fourth-largest IPO market in 2025, with proceeds exceeding $13 billion [4]. Investor Participation - LG attracted significant interest from sovereign wealth funds from Abu Dhabi, Norway, and Singapore, as well as global asset managers like BlackRock Inc. and Fidelity International Ltd. [5]. Valuation Insights - The IPO is priced at approximately 35 times earnings for the year ended March 31, which is considered reasonable compared to peers trading at higher valuations, reflecting the company's strong market position and brand equity [6]. Product Leadership - LG Electronics India holds leading market positions in various product categories, including washing machines, refrigerators, televisions, air conditioners, and microwave ovens, based on offline market share [7]. Underwriters - The share sale was managed by Axis Bank Ltd. and the Indian units of major financial institutions including Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp., and Citigroup Inc. [8].
国际金价再创历史新高 金价涨势能否持续?
Xin Hua Wang· 2025-10-09 00:35
桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧7日在美国康涅狄格州格林尼治经济论坛上表示,投资者应将"约15%的资产 配置在黄金中"。他认为,债务工具"已不再是有效的财富储藏手段",黄金则是"当投资组合其他部分下 跌时表现最佳的资产"。 高盛集团6日发布的最新报告将2026年12月黄金价格预期从每盎司4300美元上调至4900美元,理由是"央 行增持与私人部门分散化需求强劲"。报告预测,未来两年各国央行年度购金量将分别达80吨和70吨, 其中新兴市场央行将继续增加黄金在储备资产中的比重,以降低对美元的依赖。 国际金价日前再创新高,突破每盎司4000美元历史关口,引发市场广泛关注。黄金究竟表现如何?国际 金价为何大幅飙升?面对诸多不确定因素,金价涨势能否持续? 国际金价走势如何 7日,纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价突破每盎司4000美元,一度创下 每盎司4014.60美元的历史新高。 今年以来,国际金价已累计上涨约50%,黄金成为全球表现最亮眼的主要资产之一。分析人士认为,黄 金市场"害怕错过"情绪比获利回吐情绪更为强烈,导致黄金虽然已经超买,但仍有足够买盘推高价格。 金价连创新高,反映出全球避险需求 ...
At Least 30 Financials Report Next Week: Credit Not Likely An Issue (Yet) - A Look At 2 Big Banks
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-09 00:25
Group 1 - At least 30 financial services companies are scheduled to report their Q3 '25 earnings starting October 13th [2] - The earnings reports will cover a wide range of market capitalizations [2] Group 2 - The primary concern for banks is not specified in the provided content [4]
The Q3 Earnings Season Gets Underway: A Closer Look
ZACKS· 2025-10-09 00:11
Core Insights - The upcoming earnings reports from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup are anticipated to provide valuable insights into the economic landscape, with these banks showing strong performance despite recent weaknesses [2][3] - There is optimism regarding loan demand and a decline in delinquencies, alongside a robust capital market and trading activity, contributing to a positive outlook for major banks [3][4] Financial Performance Expectations - For Q3 2025, total S&P 500 index earnings are projected to increase by +5.5% year-over-year, driven by +6.2% higher revenues [6][10] - Excluding the Tech sector, earnings growth for the rest of the S&P 500 is expected to be only +2.7% [6] - The "Magnificent 7" group is forecasted to see a +12.0% increase in earnings on +14.8% higher revenues for Q3 [6] Earnings Estimates for Major Banks - JPMorgan is expected to report earnings of $4.79 per share on revenues of $44.66 billion, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of +9.6% and +4.7% respectively [8] - Estimates for Citigroup and Wells Fargo have shown positive revisions, although not as significant as those for JPMorgan [8] Sector-Wide Earnings Trends - The Zacks Finance sector is projected to experience a +10.7% increase in Q3 earnings compared to the previous year, with revenues expected to rise by +6.1% [9][10] - Positive Q3 results and management commentary are crucial for sustaining the favorable revisions trend observed recently [10][14]
Citigroup Q3 Earnings Preview: An Outlier Among The Big Banks (NYSE:C)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-08 18:01
Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C ) is set to report its third-quarter earnings on October the 14th. Estimates suggest that Citigroup will deliver slightly weaker results across the board. However, valid counterarguments exist. As such, I decided to do a write-upPearl Gray is a proprietary investment fund and independent market research firm. We primarily focus on Fixed-Income and Capital Flows. However, our Seeking Alpha readers can expect a cross-asset blend, extending to analysis of equity REITs (including Preferre ...
Citigroup Q3 Earnings Preview: An Outlier Among The Big Banks
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-08 18:01
Citigroup Inc (NYSE: C ) is set to report its third-quarter earnings on October the 14th. Estimates suggest that Citigroup will deliver slightly weaker results across the board. However, valid counterarguments exist. As such, I decided to do a write-upPearl Gray is a proprietary investment fund and independent market research firm. We primarily focus on Fixed-Income and Capital Flows. However, our Seeking Alpha readers can expect a cross-asset blend, extending to analysis of equity REITs (including Preferre ...
Copper price hits new high after Teck cuts production forecast
MINING.COM· 2025-10-08 14:31
Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile is Teck’s largest copper project. (Image courtesy of Teck Resources.) Copper surged to a 16-month high in London after Teck Resources (TSX: TECK.A, TECK.B)(NYSE: TECK) lowered its copper production guidance for 2025 after persistent setbacks at its Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine in Chile and Highland Valley Copper (HVC) operation in Canada.Prices climbed as much as 0.5% to $10,815 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange. The company said it now expects to produce 170,000 to 190,000 t ...
Citigroup Gains Momentum on Banamex Sale and Analyst Upgrades as Cramer Stays Bullish
Yahoo Finance· 2025-10-08 14:21
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) is one of Jim Cramer’s Recession-Proof Stock Picks. Jim Cramer acknowledges the stock’s growth potential amid the Banamex sales announcement and consensus Buy rating from analysts. Citigroup Gains Momentum on Banamex Sale and Analyst Upgrades as Cramer Stays Bullish On September 4, 2025, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) announced the sale of a 25% equity stake in Grupo Financiero Banamex, S.A. de C.V. CHPAF Holdings S.A.P.I de C.V., owned by Fernando Chico Pardo and his family, purchases ...