Summary of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company Name**: China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp. (CTGDF) - **Ticker**: 601888.SS / 1880.HK - **Industry**: Duty-Free Retail - **Market Position**: Largest travel retail operator globally with over 80% market share in China [21][22] Key Points from the Conference Call New Duty-Free Concessions - CTGDF announced new duty-free concessions at Shanghai International Airport, securing rights for: - Terminal T2 & Satellite Hall S2 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport - Terminal T1 at Hongqiao International Airport - The operating rights for Terminal T1 & Satellite Hall S1 at Pudong will be transferred to Dufry starting January 1, 2026, with a phased term of 5+3 years [1][3] Rental Concession Terms - New airport rental concession terms are more favorable: - Pudong T2 & S2: Rmb3,090/m²/month - Hongqiao T1: Rmb2,827/m²/month - The fixed unit fee is slightly lower than the current term (approximately Rmb3,100/m²/month), and the commission rates are also reduced (Pudong T2 & S2: 8-24%; Hongqiao T1: 8-22%) compared to the current 18-36% [2] Joint Venture with Shanghai International Airport - CTGDF will establish a joint venture with Shanghai International Airport, owning 51% and allowing for continued operation of duty-free stores at the new terminals [3] Financial Implications - Sunrise Shanghai (including Pudong, Hongqiao & Online) contributed Rmb187 million to CTGDF's earnings in 1H25, approximately 7% of the group's net profit. - The impact of losing the operating rights at Pudong T1 & S1 is expected to be limited in the short term due to their smaller scale compared to T2 & S2 [4] Competitive Landscape - The introduction of foreign retailers at Shanghai airports may alter the competitive landscape, with potential implications for Beijing airport concessions in the future. - The focus will be on optimizing product offerings to enhance conversion ratios and ticket sizes [4] Strategic Focus - CTGDF aims to enhance its brand portfolio, merchandising, and shopping experience to drive sales and profitability in airport duty-free operations. - An incentive scheme has been agreed upon, including pro-rata refunds if per capita spending exceeds target values or if competitive new products are introduced [4] Financial Projections - **Sales Revenue**: Expected to decline from Rmb67,540 million in 2023 to Rmb53,495 million in 2025E, with a recovery to Rmb58,997 million in 2026E [9] - **Net Profit**: Projected to decrease from Rmb6,714 million in 2023 to Rmb4,198 million in 2025E, with a rebound to Rmb5,248 million in 2026E [9] - **Core EPS**: Expected to drop from Rmb3.245 in 2023 to Rmb2.029 in 2025E, recovering to Rmb2.537 in 2026E [9] Risks - Potential risks include unfavorable duty-free policies, increased competition from foreign operators, and a slowdown in passenger flows due to economic conditions or disruptive events [24][29] Investment Strategy - A Buy rating is maintained for CTGDF, supported by its dominant market position and structural growth potential in China's duty-free industry, particularly driven by rising onshore spending and consumption upgrades [22][27] Valuation - Target price for CTGDF-A is set at Rmb78, based on a DCF valuation with a WACC of 10.0% and a terminal growth rate of 4% [23][28]