Group 1 - Emerging markets have experienced a significant surge in 2025, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index increasing approximately 30% since the start of the year, reaching record highs [1] - Greece's Athens Composite index has seen a nearly 44% increase over the year and is expected to be promoted to developed market status in September 2026 [2] - Fund managers at Ninety One expressed optimism about further growth in emerging markets in 2026, supported by the performance of various sectors [2] Group 2 - The weakening of the U.S. dollar has positively impacted emerging economies by lowering the cost of dollar-denominated debt, which can enhance investment inflows [3] - JP Morgan's Head of Global and European Equity Strategy predicts a second year of outperformance for emerging markets in 2026, driven by appealing valuations, currency movements, and economic growth patterns [4] - The combination of a weaker U.S. dollar, attractive valuations, and economic growth trajectories is setting the stage for continued upward trends in emerging markets [5]

Core Insights - Gold has experienced significant growth in 2025, with a year-to-date gain of over 58%, outperforming the S&P 500, which is up about 14%, and Bitcoin, which has lost around 6% [2] - Silver has outperformed gold with a 78% year-to-date gain, but gold is expected to maintain its rally into 2026 due to factors including President Trump's return to power and market reactions to his policies [3] - Increased market volatility, particularly during Trump's second administration, has led to a flight to safety among investors, reallocating capital to gold and other precious metals [3][4] Market Volatility - Volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), increased by 85% from Inauguration Day to March 10 due to tariff rumors, followed by a 20% pullback by the end of March [4] - The VIX reached a five-year high during the market's tariff tantrum in April, jumping 135% in the first week [4] - By the end of September, the VIX had settled down by 70%, but has since increased by 35%, raising concerns about potential volatility through the end of the year [5] Gold Price Drivers - Gold's surge in 2025 is attributed to geopolitical tensions, market volatility, and macroeconomic policy shifts under Trump's administration [6] - Ongoing legal and political uncertainties regarding Trump's tariff authority could further influence volatility and gold prices [6] - A weakening U.S. dollar and potential interest rate cuts in 2026 may support gold's bullish momentum into the next year [6] Legal Considerations - The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing Trump's authority to impose tariffs without Congressional approval, which could significantly impact gold's trajectory [7] - A ruling in favor of Trump would allow tariffs to remain, potentially eroding the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar and driving gold prices higher [7]