History shows that the debasement trade does not always accelerate during periods of government shutdowns. And the dollar is still above the levels seen during the last U.S. government shutdown in 2018-19, which lasted 35 days and took place under the first Trump administration.“The debasement trade has demonstrated strong momentum this year, with assets like gold and bitcoin generating strong returns,” said Matt Stucky, the Milwaukee-based chief portfolio manager of equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth M ...

Core Insights - Rising global trade tensions and increasing fiscal debt are driving investors towards safe-haven assets, particularly gold, leading to upgraded price forecasts by analysts [1][4] Gold Price Forecasts - The median forecast for gold in 2025 has increased to $3,220 per troy ounce from $3,065, while the 2026 projection has risen to $3,400 from $3,000 [2] - Spot gold has gained 27% year to date, reaching a record $3,500 per ounce in April amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions [2] Demand Drivers - Investor demand for gold is fueled by uncertainty over trade deadlines and growing fiscal fears, exacerbated by the passage of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," which is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt [4] - Central bank buying is a significant factor in gold's strength, with China increasing its gold reserves for eight consecutive months and nearly 40% of central banks acquiring gold due to geopolitical risks [6] Market Dynamics - Despite gold's recent gains, it remains below its April highs, with analysts noting a short-term market consolidation and a lack of immediate catalysts for a rally [5] Investment Opportunities - Investors can consider gold ETFs such as SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and mining ETFs like VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) as attractive entry points [7]