Core Viewpoint - The U.S. federal government experienced a shutdown on October 1, 2025, due to failed funding negotiations between lawmakers and President Trump, marking the first shutdown since the 2018-19 deadlock [1] Economic Impact - Government spending has ceased, delaying key economic data such as the jobs report, which may hinder corporate decision-making [2] - Historical data indicates that the longest shutdown in 2018-19 reduced total economic output by 0.4%, while a similar shutdown could decrease U.S. economic growth by approximately 0.15% each week [3] Market Reactions - Historically, market impacts from shutdowns are limited; the S&P 500 has averaged a 12% gain in the 12 months following past shutdowns, with a more than 10% increase during the 2018-19 shutdown [4] ETF Sector Analysis - **Treasuries**: The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) may attract investors seeking safety, although concerns about U.S. credit health have been raised by rating agencies [6] - **Consumer Discretionary**: The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) may face challenges due to federal worker furloughs and delayed paychecks impacting consumer spending [7] - **Financials**: The Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) could be negatively affected as the U.S. SEC halts most activities, delaying approvals for IPOs and M&A [8] - **Healthcare**: The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) is viewed as a defensive investment during market uncertainty, with stable demand expected [9] - **Consumer Staples**: The Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples ETF (PSCC) is considered safe and non-cyclical, typically not reliant on government contracts [10]