Core Viewpoint - U.S. futures experienced a significant increase following a lower-than-expected inflation report, which triggered a rally in the technology sector [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The lower-than-expected inflation print led to a tech-led rally in the U.S. markets [1] - U.S. futures were largely up, indicating positive investor sentiment [1]

The U.S. jobs market isn't so hot, investors learned this week, but inflation is hotter than anyone would like. Just how much? ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve will not receive critical data on U.S. inflation or job creation before its upcoming meeting in December, which is crucial for deciding on interest rate cuts for the third consecutive month [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process regarding interest rates is impacted by the lack of timely economic data [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's pause in the interest-rate cutting cycle is expected to flatten the U.S. Treasury yield curve and increase the value of the U.S. dollar, according to Franklin Templeton Institute [1] - This flattening of the yield curve and strengthening of the dollar could limit the broadening investment opportunities that Franklin Templeton anticipates [2] - Upside surprises in U.S. growth or inflation could significantly change the outlook for capital markets, with higher inflation potentially leading to weaknesses in both stock and bond markets [2]

Core Insights - March U.S. Treasury bond futures are currently presenting a selling opportunity due to recent price weakness, having reached a four-week low [1] - The U.S. inflation remains persistent, and the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on monetary policy has raised concerns among bond traders regarding demand for U.S. Treasuries [2] - A breach of the support level at 116 in March T-Bonds would empower bearish sentiment and create a selling opportunity, with a downside target of 112 [3] Technical Analysis - The daily bar chart indicates a downward trend in March U.S. Treasury bond futures, with the MACD indicator showing a bearish posture as the red line is below the blue line [1] - Technical resistance is identified at 118, where protective buy stops should be placed [3] Market Sentiment - Concerns are growing about reduced demand for U.S. Treasuries from countries that traditionally hold them in their sovereign reserves, contributing to bearish sentiment in the futures market [2]

Core Insights - Gold prices are unexpectedly continuing to decline despite a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report [1] Group 1 - The latest U.S. inflation report indicated lower inflation than anticipated, which typically supports gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. inflation report for September was tamer than expected, leading to optimism in the markets and increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December [1] - Major U.S. indexes, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, rose approximately 2% for the week, marking their second consecutive week of gains [1] - The earnings season has been strong, with 87% of companies exceeding Wall Street's expectations, significantly higher than the typical 67% beat rate, indicating potential for further market highs if Big Tech earnings also surpass estimates [2] Group 2 - President Trump's tariffs, including a new 10% tariff on Canada, pose a risk to market sentiment, as economists warn that tariffs could lead to higher prices [3] - The consumer price index showed a slight increase in the annual rate from 2.9% to 3%, despite the overall inflation report being below estimates [3] - The lack of comprehensive economic data due to the U.S. government shutdown leaves uncertainty about the economy's performance, suggesting that the market's rise may be precarious [4]

Core Viewpoint - December Treasury note futures are currently in a downtrend, presenting a selling opportunity as prices are expected to weaken further [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The daily bar chart indicates that December Treasury note futures are in a fledgling downtrend, with the MACD indicator showing a bearish posture as the blue MACD line is below the red trigger line and both are trending lower [1]. - A move below the chart support at last week's low of 112.06 would empower bearish sentiment and create a selling opportunity, with a downside price objective of 110.00 or below [3]. Fundamental Factors - Persistent U.S. inflation is keeping bond yields elevated, which inversely affects prices, leading to concerns about the U.S. budget deficit that are causing investors, including sovereign nations, to avoid purchasing U.S. Treasuries [2].

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has reached a new high, indicating strong market performance [1] - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a modest increase ahead of anticipated inflation data [1] Inflation Expectations - Economists predict that the annual inflation rate will rise to 2.9% in August from 2.7% in July [2] - There is a possibility that inflation could exceed expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [2] - The DXY dollar index has increased by 0.1% to 97.895 [2]