The Federal Reserve won't see critical information on U.S. inflation or job creation before its next pivotal meeting in December to decide whether to cut interest rates for the third month in a row. ...

Last Updated: 12 hours ago Pause in Fed's Interest-Rate Cutting Cycle Could Flatten U.S. Treasury Yield Curve By Emese Bartha, Dow Jones Newswires A pause in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle would probably flatten the U.S. Treasury yield curve and boost the value of the U.S. dollar, Franklin Templeton Institute said. Those twin outcomes could inhibit some of the broadening investment opportunities that Franklin Templeton envisages. CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Nov. 18, 2025: Dow, S&P 500 Drop as Chip Stocks ...

March U.S. T-Bond (ZBH26) futures present a selling opportunity on more price weakness. See on the daily bar chart for March U.S. Treasury bond futures that prices are trending down and have this week hit a four-week low. See, too, at the bottom of the chart that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator is in a bearish posture, as the red MACD line is below the blue trigger line and both lines are tending down. The bears have gained technical power recently. More News from Barchart Fun ...

Core Insights - Gold prices are unexpectedly continuing to decline despite a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation report [1] Group 1 - The latest U.S. inflation report indicated lower inflation than anticipated, which typically supports gold prices [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. inflation report for September was tamer than expected, leading to optimism in the markets and increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December [1] - Major U.S. indexes, including the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, rose approximately 2% for the week, marking their second consecutive week of gains [1] - The earnings season has been strong, with 87% of companies exceeding Wall Street's expectations, significantly higher than the typical 67% beat rate, indicating potential for further market highs if Big Tech earnings also surpass estimates [2] Group 2 - President Trump's tariffs, including a new 10% tariff on Canada, pose a risk to market sentiment, as economists warn that tariffs could lead to higher prices [3] - The consumer price index showed a slight increase in the annual rate from 2.9% to 3%, despite the overall inflation report being below estimates [3] - The lack of comprehensive economic data due to the U.S. government shutdown leaves uncertainty about the economy's performance, suggesting that the market's rise may be precarious [4]

Core Viewpoint - December Treasury note futures are currently in a downtrend, presenting a selling opportunity as prices are expected to weaken further [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The daily bar chart indicates that December Treasury note futures are in a fledgling downtrend, with the MACD indicator showing a bearish posture as the blue MACD line is below the red trigger line and both are trending lower [1]. - A move below the chart support at last week's low of 112.06 would empower bearish sentiment and create a selling opportunity, with a downside price objective of 110.00 or below [3]. Fundamental Factors - Persistent U.S. inflation is keeping bond yields elevated, which inversely affects prices, leading to concerns about the U.S. budget deficit that are causing investors, including sovereign nations, to avoid purchasing U.S. Treasuries [2].

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has reached a new high, indicating strong market performance [1] - The U.S. dollar is experiencing a modest increase ahead of anticipated inflation data [1] Inflation Expectations - Economists predict that the annual inflation rate will rise to 2.9% in August from 2.7% in July [2] - There is a possibility that inflation could exceed expectations, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [2] - The DXY dollar index has increased by 0.1% to 97.895 [2]