US job cuts this year have topped 1 million, the most since 2020 when the COVID pandemic rocked the global economy. [music] According to consulting firm Challenger Gray in Christmas, layoff plans totaled 71,321 in November. Challenger said that's not as high as the massive cuts announced in October, but it still pushed the total so far this year to 1.17% [music] million, and that's 54% higher than the same 11-month period a year ago.The most cited reason for the November layoffs was restructuring, followed ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index is up by +0.11%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index is up by +0.2%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index is up by +0.14% [1] - December E-mini S&P futures are up +0.11%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures are up +0.10% [1] Economic Indicators - The October JOLTS report showed job openings unexpectedly rose by +12,000 to a 5-month high of 7.670 million, indicating a stronger labor market than the expected decline to 7.117 million [3] - The September leading indicators fell by -0.3% month-over-month, aligning with expectations [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The market anticipates a -25 basis point cut in the federal funds target range to 3.50%-3.75% following the FOMC meeting [4] - There is a 90% chance of another -25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the 2-day FOMC meeting [5] Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season is nearing completion, with 495 of the 500 S&P companies having reported results [5] - 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, marking the best quarter since 2021, with Q3 earnings rising by +14.6%, significantly above the expected +7.2% year-over-year [5] Upcoming Reports - The Q3 employment cost index is expected to increase by +0.9% [4] - Weekly initial unemployment claims are projected to rise by +29,000 to 220,000 [4]

The dollar index (DXY00) on Wednesday fell by -0.50% and posted a 5-week low.  The dollar was undercut by Wednesday’s weak Nov ADP report, which was dovish for Fed policy and cemented expectations for a Fed rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. The dollar failed to find support from Wednesday’s Nov ISM services index, which unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high. President Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce his selection for the new Fed Chair in early 2026.  Bloomberg reported last week that Nationa ...

Core Insights - The dollar index fell from a 5.5-month high, closing down by -0.04% due to mixed economic signals from the US labor market and expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Labor Market Data - US September nonfarm payrolls increased by +119,000, significantly surpassing expectations of +51,000, indicating a stronger labor market [3] - The September unemployment rate unexpectedly rose by +0.1% to 4.4%, marking a nearly four-year high, which suggests some weakness in the labor market [3] - Weekly initial unemployment claims decreased by -8,000 to 220,000, better than the anticipated 227,000, reflecting a stronger labor market [2] - However, continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest in four years, indicating challenges for those laid off in finding new employment [2] Economic Indicators - The average hourly earnings in September remained unchanged from August at +3.8% year-over-year, which was stronger than the expected +3.7% [3] - The November Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey increased by +11.1 to -1.7, but this was weaker than the expected +1.0 [3] - Existing home sales in October rose by +1.2% month-over-month to an 8-month high of 4.10 million, exceeding expectations of 4.08 million [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials were hawkish, indicating caution regarding interest rate cuts due to ongoing inflation concerns [5] - Cleveland Fed President expressed that lowering interest rates could prolong elevated inflation and encourage risk-taking in financial markets [5] - Chicago Fed President noted that inflation appears stalled or possibly rising, which raises concerns about preemptively cutting interest rates [5] - Fed Governor highlighted concerns about inflation remaining around 3%, emphasizing the need for caution in considering further interest rate cuts [5]

Economic Impact - The impact of AI on the surge in US economic growth is exaggerated [1] Labor Market - The impact of AI on the weakening US labor market is exaggerated [1]