Group 1 - The focus is on upcoming inflation data and its potential impact on equity markets and Fed fund expectations [1][2] - A hotter than expected inflation print would necessitate a higher discount rate, negatively affecting earnings and equities, while a downside surprise would have the opposite effect [2][3] - The current terminal rate is priced at 3%, aligning with the Fed's neutral stance, but a more dovish outlook could indicate recession territory, which is unfavorable for stocks [3][4] Group 2 - The market assumes the Fed prioritizes the labor market over inflation, suggesting that a hot inflation print may only cause minor fluctuations in equity markets [4][6] - There is skepticism regarding the transitory nature of inflation, especially if driven by tariffs, which could lead to higher oil prices and breakevens [6][7] - Higher yields are expected as inflation data comes in hotter, but immediate changes are not anticipated until there are signs of persistent inflation [7][8] Group 3 - Elevated valuations do not predict equity returns but can increase investor nervousness, leading to more severe sell-offs during downturns [8][9] - Vigilance is advised in the current market environment due to potential negative catalysts, rather than outright selling [9]