Core Points - U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that trade talks with India are progressing positively, with a potential visit to India in 2026 if invited by Prime Minister Modi [2][3] - Recent tensions in U.S.-India relations have been attributed to steep tariffs, high fees for H1B visas, and India's oil purchases from Russia [3][5] - Ongoing negotiations may lead to a reduction in tariffs on Indian goods from 50% to 20%, aligning India more closely with other Asian countries [4] Trade Relations - The current tariff rate on Indian exports is 50%, which is higher than the 47% duties imposed on China [3] - Experts suggest that while tariffs may decrease, they are unlikely to reach the levels of Japan and South Korea, which are at 15% due to unresolved issues regarding Russian oil and agricultural imports [5] Oil Imports - Indian refiners have begun to reduce imports of Russian oil following U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, which will take effect on November 21 [5][6] - Russian oil is currently trading at significant discounts to Brent in Asia, influenced by the reduced purchases from major Indian and Chinese refiners [6] Long-term Outlook - Experts believe that completely phasing out Russian oil is not a realistic goal for India, as the economic benefits of discounted Russian crude may challenge India's current approach [7]

H-1B Visa Program Changes - The Trump administration is considering raising the H-1B visa application fee to $100,000 [1][3] - The H-1B visa program allows US employers to hire foreign professionals in specialty occupations requiring at least a bachelor's degree [1] - For fiscal year 2026, over 350,000 registrations were received, but only 120,000 were selected [4] Impact on Indian Companies - 71% of H-1B visa users are from India, with the bulk of the remainder coming from China [6] - Approximately 86,000 workers per year receive the H-1B visa [7] - The potential annual fee of $100,000 would have been materially detrimental to India [6][7] US-India Trade Relations - The US-India trade situation is not good, with tariffs increasing [8][9] - The US and India have not reached a trade deal, and negotiations are ongoing [9][10] - The US Trade Representative (USTR) has been focused on India, including stripping them of their GSP status [9]