Summary of the Conference Call on China's Power Supply and Demand Forecast for 2026 Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the power supply and demand forecast for China in 2026, highlighting the electricity generation landscape and the impact of various energy sources on the market [1][3][14]. Key Points and Arguments Power Supply and Demand Forecast - The overall electricity demand in China is expected to grow by approximately 5% in 2026, with significant increases in residential and tertiary industry consumption, both exceeding 7% [1][5]. - The peak load demand during the summer is projected to increase by about 5.5%, influenced by extreme weather and a higher proportion of electricity consumption from residents and the tertiary sector [2][11]. - By the end of 2026, the redundant installed capacity is expected to approach 200 million kilowatts, indicating a relatively loose supply-demand situation and a low risk of summer electricity shortages [2][12][13]. Electricity Generation Structure - The generation structure is anticipated to see a continued high growth in renewable energy, with its share expected to exceed 25% of total electricity generation [3][9]. - Coal-fired electricity generation is projected to decline by approximately 3%, primarily due to the competitive pressure from renewable energy sources [9][14]. Renewable Energy Capacity - The installed capacity for renewable energy is expected to experience marginal decline in 2026, with wind power capacity maintaining around 125 million kilowatts and solar power capacity potentially decreasing to 150 million kilowatts due to project approval delays and issues related to curtailment [6][7]. - The rapid growth of energy storage, with an expected addition of about 66 GW in 2025, is a key factor in reducing the risk of electricity shortages during peak demand periods [1][3]. Coal and Thermal Power Dynamics - The thermal power sector is expected to reach a peak production period, with an anticipated addition of around 70 GW of new capacity from 2025 to 2026 [7]. - The competition among wind and solar power is expected to remain robust, with growth rates around 20%, while coal power may see a decline in competitiveness [7][9]. Market Mechanisms and Pricing - The introduction of a spot market has led to significant price differences at various times, which has pressured coal-fired power generation to abandon low-priced electricity during peak hours, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of thermal power [8][9]. Future Outlook - The overall power generation competitiveness is expected to maintain a moderate growth rate of around 5% in 2026, with renewable energy's share further increasing to over 15% [14]. - The anticipated weak demand for coal is expected to keep coal prices at low levels in 2026 [10]. Additional Important Insights - The growth in electricity demand is driven by improvements in living standards, urbanization, and advancements in energy storage and AI-related industries [5]. - The impact of traditional sectors such as photovoltaic manufacturing and construction is expected to diminish, allowing for a more favorable outlook for overall electricity demand [5].