The number of unemployment claims filed by federal workers has grown sharply, reaching their highest level since a 34-day government shutdown that ended in January 2019 https://t.co/LhpLlyWwkT ...

Data from states show that initial unemployment claims filed by federal government workers have jumped up this month. ...

Valuation Metrics - Shiller's CAPE is currently at 40x, the highest level since the dot-com bubble, indicating a potentially expensive market [4] - Trailing P/E stands at about 28x, significantly above historical averages, calculated using earnings from the past 12 months [5] - Forward P/E is approximately 22x, also above historical averages, based on expected earnings over the next 12 months [6] - All valuation metrics suggest that the stock market is expensive, implying weak returns in the future [7] Historical Context - In mid-2014, Shiller's CAPE was about 26x, above its long-term average of 17x, suggesting the market was expensive [8] - The realized CAPE at that time was about 17x, indicating the market was not expensive due to healthy earnings growth in subsequent years [9] Macroeconomic Developments - Inflation is rising, with the core PCE price index up 2.9% year-over-year, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [13] - Consumer spending increased by 0.3% month-over-month in August, reaching a record annual rate of $21.11 trillion [14] - Business investment activity improved, with core capex orders rising 0.6% to $76.7 billion in August [15] - Initial unemployment claims fell to 218,000, indicating a historically strong labor market [16] Housing Market Insights - Sales of previously owned homes decreased by 0.2% in August, while new home sales surged 20.5% to an annualized rate of 800,000 units [19][20] - The median existing-home sales price rose 2.0% year-over-year, marking the 26th consecutive month of price increases [20] Economic Outlook - The long-term outlook for the stock market remains favorable, supported by expectations for years of earnings growth [23] - Demand for goods and services remains positive, bolstered by healthy consumer and business balance sheets [24] - Economic growth is normalizing, with major tailwinds like excess job openings fading [25] - There is a disconnect between hard economic data and soft sentiment-oriented data, with tangible activity continuing to grow [26] Market Dynamics - The U.S. stock market may outperform the economy in the near term due to positive operating leverage from companies adjusting cost structures [27] - Risks such as political uncertainty, geopolitical turmoil, and energy price volatility remain present [28]

Group 1 - The job market is currently as challenging as during the pandemic, with 20% of consumers stating jobs are "hard to get," an increase from 18.9% [1] - The Employment Trends Index indicates that the 20% figure is the highest since early 2021, coinciding with lockdowns that limited job opportunities [1] - Job openings have decreased significantly, with a drop of 176,000 in July following a decline of 355,000 in June [2] Group 2 - Small firms are struggling to fill job openings, with 32% reporting difficulties, a slight decrease from 33% in July and 36% in June [3] - Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose slightly in August, nearing May levels, with about 17% of the workforce taking part-time jobs after being laid off from full-time positions [5] - Six of the eight components of the Employment Trends Index were negative in both July and August, marking a potential turning point in business activity and confidence [6]

And where are stocks heading from here. Well, we welcome Ed Yardi to Power Lunch. He is founder and head of Ardeni Research.Ed, great to have you on. >> Thank you very much. >> All right.Why do you think the market is not reacting a little more negatively to the hot inflation read and a lowered expectation of more Fed rate cuts in the future. Well, I think the uh market hasn't given up on the idea that the economy is actually resilient, that it doesn't necessarily need lower interest rates and that if we ge ...

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims rose to 241K, exceeding the expected 225K and the revised previous week's 223K, marking the highest level since February [3] - Continuing Claims surpassed 1.9 million, reaching 1.916 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating potential labor market weakness [4] Q1 Earnings Reports - Eli Lilly (LLY) reported earnings of $3.34 per share, missing expectations by 5%, but revenues of $12.73 billion exceeded projections and last year's $8.77 billion, driven by strong sales of weight-loss drug Mounjaro at $3.84 billion [5] - McDonald's (MCD) posted earnings of $2.67 per share, slightly above consensus, but revenues of $5.96 billion missed expectations, with same-store sales at their lowest in five years, leading to a 2% drop in shares [6] - CVS Health (CVS) beat earnings expectations with $2.25 per share versus $1.71 anticipated, and revenues of $94.59 billion exceeded estimates, contributing to an 8.7% increase in shares [7] - Wayfair (W) reported a surprise profit of $0.10 per share, significantly better than the expected loss of $0.18, with revenues of $2.73 billion slightly above estimates, resulting in a 6% rise in shares [8] Market Expectations - Anticipation for S&P Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing data, with S&P expected to slightly decrease to 50.6 while ISM is projected to drop to 47.8, indicating potential contraction [9] - Construction Spending for March is expected to decline to +0.2% from +0.7% in February, reflecting a slowdown in economic activity [10] - Upcoming earnings reports from major companies including Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) are expected to influence market sentiment [11]