Core Viewpoint - A potential U.S. move to block imports of certain disposable vapes could significantly reduce the unregulated e-cigarette market by up to one-third, although any impact is not expected before 2027 [1] Group 1: Market Impact - British American Tobacco (BAT) estimates that unregulated devices account for approximately 70% of U.S. e-cigarette sales, affecting both its vaping and traditional tobacco businesses [2] - CEO Tadeu Marroco indicated that a block could lead to a decline in market sales to below 50%, equating to a reduction of roughly one-third [4] - The long supply chain and large inventories for these devices may delay the impact of any potential import block [4] Group 2: Legal and Regulatory Developments - BAT has two active cases at the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) aimed at blocking imports of unregulated devices [2] - An ITC judge previously ruled in favor of BAT in a patent dispute, recommending a general exclusion order to block disposable vapes that infringe its patents [3] - A full ITC determination is expected in March, followed by a 60-day presidential review [3] Group 3: Future Regulatory Changes - There is speculation that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may initiate a program to test new approaches to vapes, potentially including flavored options [5] - The FDA has been working to expedite or streamline its processes for new nicotine product applications after years of rejecting most [5]