Upper Middle Income Country
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India set to move into upper-middle-income group by 2030 & join China: SBI
The Economic Times· 2026-01-19 06:08
Economic Growth and Income Classification - India is projected to reach a per capita income of $4,000 by 2030, transitioning to an upper-middle-income country alongside China and Indonesia [1][10] - The country took 60 years to progress from low-income to lower-middle-income status in 2007, with per capita gross national income increasing from $90 in 1962 to $910 in 2007, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% [1][10] - The pace of economic growth has accelerated, with India achieving a $1 trillion economy six decades post-Independence, adding the second trillion in seven years by 2014, the third trillion by 2021, and the fourth trillion in just four years by 2025 [2][10] Per Capita Income Trends - India reached a per capita income of $1,000 in 2009, doubled it to $2,000 by 2019, and is expected to reach $3,000 by 2026 [2][10] - The growth performance of India has improved globally, with its percentile rank in average real GDP growth rising from the 92nd to the 95th percentile over a 25-year horizon [5][11] Future Projections and Goals - To achieve the high-income country per capita GNI threshold of $13,936 by 2047, India's per capita GNI needs to grow at a CAGR of 7.5%, which is feasible given the historical growth rate of 8.3% from 2001 to 2024 [6][11] - If the high-income threshold increases to approximately $18,000 by 2047, the required annual growth rate for per capita GNI would rise to around 8.9% [6][11] - Sustaining a nominal GDP growth of about 11.5% over the next two decades is essential, which aligns with India's historical performance prior to the pandemic [7][11] Global Income Classification Trends - The World Bank classifies countries into four income groups based on per capita GNI, and recent data shows a significant shift in global income distribution, with the number of low-income countries decreasing from 51 in 1990 to 26 in 2024 [8][9] - The number of upper-middle-income economies has increased to 54, while high-income countries have more than doubled to 87, indicating a global trend of countries advancing to higher income brackets [9][10]