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Can Stride's 11% Enrollment Growth Outlast Its Platform Glitches?
ZACKS· 2025-11-20 19:11
Core Insights - Stride, Inc. (LRN) experienced an 11.3% enrollment growth in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with Career Learning enrollments increasing by 20% and General Education enrollments rising by 5.2% [1][8] - The company's diversified offerings in career learning, particularly in healthcare, IT, and advanced manufacturing, are enhancing its growth prospects as the market shifts towards virtual and career-oriented education [1][4] - However, technical disruptions in its platforms have led to a projected loss of 10,000-15,000 enrollments for fiscal 2026, resulting in a muted outlook despite positive growth trends [3][8] Enrollment and Growth - The 11.3% enrollment growth is primarily driven by a significant 20% increase in Career Learning enrollments [1][8] - General Education enrollments also saw a modest improvement of 5.2% [1] Technical Challenges - Stride has faced technical issues since August 2025, leading to withdrawals from its platforms and a poor customer experience, which negatively impacted conversion rates [2][3] - The company is actively working to resolve these technical challenges, with expectations for major improvements in the coming months [3][4] Market Performance - Stride's stock has declined by 60.8% over the past three months, underperforming compared to the Zacks Schools industry and the broader market [5][8] - Competitors like Strategic Education, Inc. and American Public Education, Inc. are also in the market, with Strategic Education's shares down 3% and American Public Education's shares up 13.8% in the same period [6] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - LRN's stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 7.66, which is lower than its competitors, Strategic Education at 12.14 and American Public Education at 17.05 [9][10] - Earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 and 2027 have been revised downwards by 4.8% and 8.3%, respectively, due to ongoing concerns and a muted enrollment outlook [11][12]