Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Attractive" industry view for North America [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights a framework of "visibility to free cash flow (FCF) vs valuation" to analyze potential durable outperformance in the current macroeconomic environment, with META, GOOGL, and UBER identified as top performers [1][10]. - The macroeconomic outlook includes muted GDP growth expectations of 0.6% and 0.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, alongside firming inflation and a steady Federal Reserve [2]. - The report emphasizes the interconnectedness of e-commerce and digital advertising, noting that e-commerce drives online advertising and vice versa, with META positioned as the most resilient in the face of tariff impacts [4][5]. Summary by Sections Macro Factors - The focus is on three macro factors: business confidence, hiring trends, and consumer spending health, which are critical for driving investment and hiring decisions [2]. Tariff Exposure - The report details the estimated exposure of U.S. imports from China across various e-commerce companies, with AMZN and RVLV having around 18% exposure, while PTON and FIGS have less than 2% [3][19]. - It discusses the potential ripple effects of China tariffs on digital advertising, particularly affecting smaller businesses and 1P/3P sellers [4]. Visibility vs Valuation Framework - The report employs a quadrant analysis to assess visibility and valuation support, indicating that companies with higher visibility on earnings and cash flow are likely to receive more investor capital first [10][11]. - META and GOOGL are highlighted for their high margin and reasonable valuations, with META favored due to its audience engagement factors and innovations [13]. Company-Specific Insights - CHWY is noted for its high resilience and FCF visibility due to its autoship model, while UBER is recognized for its smaller standard deviation of FCF in 2026 [14][15]. - Companies like BKNG and DASH are also mentioned for their visibility and execution capabilities, while FIGS and PTON face more risks due to their discretionary nature and tariff impacts [16][17]. Price Target Changes - The report outlines price target adjustments for several companies, including a reduction for GOOGL from $210 to $185 and for META from $660 to $615, reflecting lowered revenue estimates due to macroeconomic pressures [39][40].