Volume shedding

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Waste nections(WCN) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-07-24 13:32
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $2,407 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.1% or $159 million, exceeding the high end of the company's outlook [21] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 was $786.4 million, up 7.5% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.7%, consistent with guidance and up 10 basis points year-over-year [26][27] - The company maintains a full-year 2025 revenue outlook of approximately $9,450 million, with adjusted EBITDA estimated at approximately $3,120 million, reflecting a 50 basis point increase in adjusted EBITDA margin [30][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core solid waste pricing increased by 6.6%, exceeding inflation, contributing to a 70 basis point underlying adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in solid waste [12][21] - Reported volume declines of 2.6% were attributed to a purposeful price-volume trade-off and shedding of underperforming contracts [12][22] - Landfill revenue increased by about 4%, with tons up 1.5%, while construction and demolition (C&D) tons were down 9%, indicating limited construction activity [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. EPA waste activity, correlated to crude prices, was down about 10% year-over-year, particularly in June, while Canadian operations showed growth in both price and volume [25] - The company experienced a decline in recycled commodity values by 10-15% during Q2, alongside a 15% drop in Renewable Energy Credits (RINs) [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a robust acquisition pipeline, having completed approximately $200 million in annualized revenue from acquisitions, with expectations for an additional $100 to $200 million in acquisitions by early 2026 [5][17] - Emphasis on leveraging technology for operational efficiency and margin expansion, including AI-driven applications for customer retention and pricing [15][16] - The company is committed to returning capital to shareholders through opportunistic share repurchases, having bought back 1.3 million shares to date [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate economic headwinds, maintaining a full-year 2025 outlook despite uncertainties in the macro environment [34] - The company highlighted improvements in employee retention and safety, which are expected to contribute positively to operational execution and margin expansion [11][13] - Management remains cautious about predicting volume recovery, citing ongoing economic challenges and the impact of M&A activity [64] Other Important Information - The company announced the retirement of COO Daryl Chambliss, effective August 8, 2025, acknowledging his significant contributions over nearly three decades [35][36] - Progress on remediation efforts at Chiquita Canyon Landfill is ongoing, with the U.S. EPA taking a more active role in regulatory oversight [19][89] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you clarify capital allocation strategy regarding M&A and buybacks? - Management confirmed that the recent buyback activity is opportunistic and does not indicate a change in M&A strategy, emphasizing the capacity to pursue both [44][45] Question: What is the expected M&A impact in 2025? - The original guidance included $300 million from acquisitions, with $75 million already closed and an additional $125 million expected in the first half of the year [47] Question: How do you see E&P revenue trends given the rig count? - E&P revenue was approximately $180 million for the quarter, reflecting growth from acquisitions, with expectations to maintain a run rate between $160 million and $170 million [48][49] Question: What are the dynamics of volume shedding? - Management indicated that Q3 is expected to be the most negative quarter due to ongoing shedding impacts, with a return to more normal volumes anticipated in Q4 [56][57] Question: How does the EPA's involvement benefit remediation efforts? - The EPA's involvement is expected to streamline regulatory processes and improve coordination among various agencies, facilitating faster progress in remediation efforts [88][89]