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Goldman Sachs Hits The Brakes: Auto Tariffs & Slumping Demand May Shake Up Ford, Tesla, Rivian, Lear & Visteon
Benzinga· 2025-04-10 17:59
Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney has revised down U.S. auto sales and global production forecasts due to tariff issues and declining consumer demand [1] Auto Sales and Production Forecasts - U.S. auto sales are projected to reach 15.40 million units in 2025 and 15.25 million in 2026, down from previous estimates of 16.25 million and 16.35 million respectively [4] - The proposed tariffs are expected to increase the cost of importing and manufacturing vehicles in the U.S. by a low- to mid-single-digit thousand-dollar level on average [2] Impact on Vehicle Pricing - New vehicle net prices in the U.S. are anticipated to rise by approximately $2,000 to $4,000 over the next 6–12 months due to tariff impacts [3] Company-Specific Ratings and Forecasts - Ford Motor Company: Downgraded from Buy to Neutral with a price forecast of $9, reflecting a tougher cyclical environment and rising tariff-related costs [4][5] - General Motors Company: Maintained a Buy rating with a price forecast of $63, despite a tougher cyclical outlook and increased competition [5][6] - Tesla, Inc.: Neutral rating with a price forecast of $260, acknowledging headwinds from weaker auto demand and tariff-related costs [6][7] - Rivian Automotive, Inc.: Neutral rating with a price forecast of $12, facing risks from reduced U.S. EV policy support [7] Supplier Impact - Tier 1 suppliers like Lear Corporation and Visteon Corporation are downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to high tariff exposure limiting their ability to offset lower industry volumes [8] - Visteon and Lear stocks are facing significant declines, with Visteon shares down 10.5% and Lear shares down 8.89% [9]