Core Viewpoint - Emerging-market debt has shown strong performance recently, particularly in the bond market, prompting new fund launches aimed at capitalizing on this trend [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Emerging-market debt was the strongest performer in the bond market for both the fourth quarter and the entire last year, according to Morningstar [2]. - The Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund ETF (VWO) is up 5% year-to-date, the Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF (AVEM) is up 7% year-to-date, and the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF (FRDM) is up 12% year-to-date [5]. Group 2: Fund Launches and Strategies - Franklin Templeton launched the Templeton Emerging Markets Debt ETF (TEMD), which combines exposure to US dollar-denominated and local currency-denominated debt [2]. - TEMD will maintain at least half of its allocation to USD- and Euro-denominated debt securities, which could lead to higher yields and total return potential [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - There is approximately $34.2 billion in emerging market bond ETFs, indicating a growing but still relatively small market [3]. - The weakening dollar, which has fallen to its lowest level in years, is a supporting factor for the emerging market strategy [4].

Core Viewpoint - A weakening dollar is beneficial for emerging market stocks, as evidenced by their strong performance when the dollar declines [1][3]. Currency Trends - The U.S. dollar has decreased by 11% over the past year and more than 2% in 2026, as indicated by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) [1]. - Factors contributing to the dollar's decline include unpredictable White House policies, pressures on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and unfunded tax cuts increasing national debt [2]. Investment Opportunities - Emerging market (EM) stocks tend to perform well when the dollar weakens, as seen in 2025 when the dollar fell 9% and EM stocks rose by 25.6%, outperforming the S&P 500's 17.7% gain [3]. - The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) is highlighted as a strong investment vehicle for gaining exposure to emerging markets [4][7]. Market Sentiment - A weaker dollar indicates reduced risk aversion among global investors, leading to increased investment in emerging markets [4]. - The current U.S. administration supports a weaker dollar, with President Trump expressing that it is beneficial for business [5]. Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecast for emerging markets from 3.7% to 4.1%, largely due to improved expectations for China's economy [9]. - Emerging market stocks are currently considered undervalued compared to U.S. equities, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 13.4 compared to 22 for the S&P 500 [10].

Group 1 - Gold prices have seen significant gains, briefly testing $5,600 per ounce before settling around $5,500, marking an increase of over 3% in a single session [2] - Silver has also surged past $119 an ounce, outperforming gold in both momentum and narrative [2] - The current market dynamics indicate a shift from traditional inflation hedging to a focus on confidence and liquidity, as investors seek solid assets [2] Group 2 - The gold market is experiencing classic melt-up behavior, with overbought conditions being less impactful due to overwhelming capital flows [4] - The 14-day RSI for gold is above 90, indicating extreme overbought conditions, yet prices remain above major moving averages [3] - The weakening US dollar, down nearly 11% year over year, is a significant driver of gold's price increase, overshadowing factors like mine supply and jewelry demand [7]

Core Insights - Gold is expected to be a leading commodity in 2025, driven by a weakening dollar and other factors [1] - The Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM) has a significant allocation to gold, enhancing its performance this year [2][3] - NBCM's active management allows for flexible adjustments in commodity exposure, particularly to gold and silver, which are anticipated to benefit from rising bullion prices [3] Market Dynamics - The increase in gold prices is supported by fundamental factors such as geopolitical tensions, economic policies, and concerns regarding the Federal Reserve [4] - Morgan Stanley has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,400 per troy ounce, up from a previous estimate of $3,313, indicating potential appreciation [5] - Expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could weaken the dollar and enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][7] Historical Context - Historically, gold prices have risen by an average of 6% in the 60 days following the initiation of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, as lower yields make gold more attractive [8]

Market Analysis - Crypto is considered a better long opportunity than stocks due to the fragility of the financial system [1] - The financial system is built on an aggressively weakening dollar [1] - Crypto offers the advantages of holding bearer assets that cannot be seized [1] Investment Strategy - The individual does not own Zcash despite believing in the advantages of crypto [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar has experienced an 11% decline in value relative to other currencies in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance in decades, driven by inflation, tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical issues [1] Cryptocurrency Market Opportunities - The weakening dollar presents investment opportunities in international companies, commodities, and precious metals, with a notable potential for cryptocurrency stocks as investors seek alternatives for stability and growth [2] - A favorable regulatory environment is expected to drive cryptocurrency prices higher, with Bitcoin's price increasing nearly 20% year-to-date [3] Company-Specific Insights Coinbase Global - Coinbase Global operates one of the largest cryptocurrency exchange platforms, with a market capitalization of nearly $85 billion, and is set to benefit from new spot crypto ETF rules [4] - The company reported $1.5 billion in revenue for the latest quarter, falling short of the $1.7 billion analysts predicted, but analysts expect a nearly 19% improvement in earnings in the coming year [6] - Thirteen out of 25 analysts rated COIN shares as a Buy, indicating a potential upside of 12% based on estimates [6] Robinhood Markets - Robinhood has expanded its crypto offerings significantly, becoming a popular alternative to dedicated cryptocurrency exchanges [7] - The company experienced a 45% year-over-year revenue increase in the most recent quarter, driven by higher trading volume and assets under custody [8] - Despite a tripling of its stock price this year and a rising P/E ratio, 11 out of 18 analysts still rate HOOD shares as a Buy [9] Bitfarms - Bitfarms is a Bitcoin mining firm with operations across North and South America, currently trading under $3 per share [11] - The company is restructuring its operations to improve efficiency, including shutting down a mining site in Argentina and converting some mining capacity into data center space [12] - Bitfarms added 12,000 rigs in the latest quarter, producing approximately 7.2 BTC, resulting in about $8 million in monthly free cash flow, and has initiated a share buyback program [13]

South Africa’s currency is on track for its biggest August gain in two decades, with stocks not far behind, as a weakening dollar spurs demand for high-yielding assets outside the US https://t.co/0Nd8fB8j2M ...

With a weakening dollar, it's America Second ahead of Independence Day, says @johnauthers (via @opinion) https://t.co/seBlCUECpO ...