Defense Sector Performance During Shutdowns - Defense stocks may experience short-term fluctuations during government shutdowns, but legacy programs and critical operations are likely to maintain funding [1] - Historically, the aerospace and defense industry has outperformed the S&P during government shutdowns [3] - Geopolitical volatility generally acts as a tailwind for the defense and aerospace sector [4] Investment Opportunities - Cabelli Commercial Aerospace and Defense ETF (GCAD) holds significant positions in companies like Hexel, which produces composite materials for defense weapon systems and commercial aircraft [5] - Boeing is favored due to its weapons systems contracts, including the F47, and its substantial commercial aircraft backlog [5][6] - Graham Corporation, which manufactures parts for nuclear reactors on submarines, is expected to benefit from increased undersea and shipbuilding activities in the Asia-Pacific region [8] Impact of Geopolitical Tensions - Tensions between the US and China, despite not being a direct military conflict, are creating an adversarial environment that necessitates continued defense spending [6][7][8] - Development in undersea and shipbuilding is anticipated to counter China's military advancements and project power in the Asia-Pacific region [8] Potential Areas of Impact - The IT space and government services sectors are expected to be more significantly impacted by prolonged shutdowns [10] - The rise of AI is anticipated to bring long-term structural changes to the IT and government services industries [10] - Kinetic weapon systems, intelligence, space defense, and ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) related companies are projected to perform well in the long term [10]