Wellness Ecosystem Expansion
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PTON Raises EBITDA View, Can Profit Momentum Offset Subscription Drop?
ZACKSยท 2025-11-11 16:10
Core Insights - Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) reported a stronger-than-expected start to fiscal 2026, driven by disciplined cost management and favorable product mix trends, raising its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to $425-$475 million [1][9] - Despite improved profitability, Peloton experienced a decline in subscriptions, ending the quarter with 2.73 million Paid Connected Fitness Subscriptions, down 6% year over year, and subscription revenues fell 7% [2][9] - The company is focusing on product innovation and wellness ecosystem expansion to counteract declining subscription momentum, with initiatives like Peloton IQ personalized coaching and expanded retail distribution [3][4] Financial Performance - Peloton's adjusted EBITDA forecast for fiscal 2026 was raised to $425-$475 million due to cost savings [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Peloton's earnings implies a year-over-year growth of 123.3% for 2025 and 50% for 2026 [10][14] - Peloton's shares have increased by 12.2% over the past six months, contrasting with a 1.8% decline in the industry [7] Competitive Landscape - Peloton faces competition from Planet Fitness, which operates a low-cost gym network appealing to value-driven consumers, benefiting from stable membership growth [5] - Xponential Fitness offers boutique studio concepts targeting consumers seeking group-oriented workouts, presenting competition as Peloton expands into wellness and strength categories [6] Strategic Initiatives - Peloton's new initiatives, including Peloton IQ and retail expansion, aim to rebuild engagement and offset subscription churn [9] - The company acknowledges that recent price increases and recall-related disruptions may temporarily elevate churn in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, but expects full-year churn to remain roughly flat [2][4]