Would you try to solve problem in mathematics by popular vote. Probably not. And if most people don't know much about math, why do we assume that they know better about politics.Those questions were asked by one of the best writers ever, Horgei Vorhees, and they came in the aftermath of a military coupe that led to the deadliest dictatorship in the history of my country, Argentina. Bores believed that democracy was a superstition, that it has no value. The idea is simple and even intuitive.If most people ar ...

prediction markets as sort of sources of data and prediction. Do you buy this theory. Like is there is there something to these platforms ability to actually accurately predict things.I don't think the test should be are they accurate about predicting things. I think the test really should be does that price on a given contract accurately reflect conventional wisdom. Now if you and and in a sense a prediction market is a replacement for your typical cable TV news pundit and the pundit is talking about you k ...