Are prediction markets more accurate that expert forecasts? Creedit: Hanna Pad via Pexels. Key Takeaways Prediction market advocates argue that the wisdom of the crowd is better at predicting outcomes than a small group of experts. For instance, Kalshi claims its platform “beats Wall Street” consensus forecasts. Other research paints a more mixed picture of prediction market accuracy. To mark the launch of its new research division on Monday, Dec. 22, Kalshi released a study that found its platfor ...

Core Insights - Google is integrating prediction market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi into Google Search and Google Finance, allowing users to access crowd-based forecasts on significant future events [1][2] Group 1: Features and Functionality - The prediction market data will respond to natural language queries, providing real-time market odds and charts showing probability shifts over time [2] - This feature leverages the concept of "wisdom of the crowd," suggesting that collective market expectations can yield more accurate forecasts than traditional methods [3] Group 2: Market Impact and Partnerships - This integration represents a significant move for Polymarket, enhancing its visibility as a blockchain-based platform, especially since it operates outside the U.S. due to regulatory issues [4] - The update is part of a broader overhaul of Google Finance, which includes new AI-driven tools like Deep Search and earnings call tracking features [5] Group 3: Global Expansion - The updated Google Finance will initially roll out in the U.S. and is set to expand to other markets, starting with India [5]