Core Insights - Kalshi's new research division claims its prediction market platform can predict inflation rates more accurately than Wall Street consensus forecasts, achieving an accuracy rate of 85% in short-term forecasts made one week ahead of official releases [2] - The company asserts that its forecasts are 40% more accurate overall compared to traditional forecasts, based on mean absolute error [2] - Kalshi identified "shock alpha" periods where its forecasts had 50% lower forecast error than traditional estimates, indicating potential advantages in specific market conditions [3] Prediction Market Accuracy - Advocates for prediction markets argue that collective intelligence can outperform expert predictions, yet independent research presents a more nuanced view of their accuracy [4][7] - A study of nearly 2,500 political prediction markets during the 2024 U.S. presidential election found accuracy rates of 78% for Kalshi and 67% for Polymarket, with well-defined events yielding better results than speculative contracts [5] Market Inefficiencies - The accuracy of prediction markets is hindered by inefficiencies, as evidenced by speculative behavior, momentum trading, and partisan bets affecting market prices [6] - Significant price divergences between equivalent contracts on different platforms suggest that the market making and arbitrage processes necessary for aligning forecasts with public opinion are still developing [8]

Core Insights - Google is integrating prediction market odds from Polymarket and Kalshi into Google Search and Google Finance, allowing users to access crowd-based forecasts on significant future events [1][2] Group 1: Features and Functionality - The prediction market data will respond to natural language queries, providing real-time market odds and charts showing probability shifts over time [2] - This feature leverages the concept of "wisdom of the crowd," suggesting that collective market expectations can yield more accurate forecasts than traditional methods [3] Group 2: Market Impact and Partnerships - This integration represents a significant move for Polymarket, enhancing its visibility as a blockchain-based platform, especially since it operates outside the U.S. due to regulatory issues [4] - The update is part of a broader overhaul of Google Finance, which includes new AI-driven tools like Deep Search and earnings call tracking features [5] Group 3: Global Expansion - The updated Google Finance will initially roll out in the U.S. and is set to expand to other markets, starting with India [5]