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Carnival's Deposits Hit Records: Can Booking Momentum Continue?
ZACKSยท 2025-09-18 17:10
Core Insights - Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL) achieved record customer deposits in Q2 2025, increasing by over $250 million year-over-year, indicating strong underlying demand and effective cash inflow management ahead of sailings [1][8] - The company reported a 6.5% year-over-year growth in net yields, surpassing guidance by 200 basis points, driven by extended booking windows and a focus on same-ship revenue growth [2][8] - CCL improved its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to 3.7x from 4.1x, supported by record operating results and refinancing, enhancing its balance sheet and liquidity [3][8] Booking and Revenue Strategy - The increase in deposits reflects CCL's successful strategy of extending the booking window, allowing for better yield management and pricing optimization as sailings approach [2] - Upcoming product catalysts, including a new private destination in the Caribbean, are expected to further boost deposits and enhance revenue visibility [4] Competitive Landscape - Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) reported strong forward bookings for 2025, with both volume and pricing exceeding last year's levels, contributing to higher advance cash collections [5] - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) also noted record Advanced Ticket Sales (ATS) of approximately $4 billion, indicating robust demand and serving as a strategic funding source for debt reduction [6] Financial Performance and Valuation - CCL's stock has increased by 32.1% over the past three months, outperforming the industry growth of 13.4% [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for CCL stands at 14.04X, significantly lower than the industry average of 18.63X, suggesting potential undervaluation [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects a year-over-year earnings increase of 41.6% for fiscal 2025 and 14.1% for fiscal 2026, with EPS estimates having risen in the past 60 days [11]