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The Zombie Stock List Makes Another Call For Five9
Forbes· 2025-09-18 20:10
Core Viewpoint - Five9 Inc. is classified as a Zombie Stock due to its high cash burn, lack of profitability, and declining revenue growth, despite recent revenue increases driven by enterprise AI [3][4][6][8]. Financial Performance - Five9's subscription revenue grew 16% year-over-year (YoY) in 2Q25, primarily due to a 42% increase in enterprise AI revenue [4]. - Total revenue increased by 12% YoY in 2Q25, and management raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to 10% YoY [4]. - The company has not generated annual profits since 2019 and has a negative free cash flow (FCF) [4][10]. Cash Position and Burn Rate - Five9's cash on hand decreased from $1.1 billion in the TTM ended 2Q24 to $636 million in the TTM ended 2Q25, indicating a significant cash burn [7]. - The company has burned through a cumulative $1.1 billion in FCF since 2017, with a TTM cash burn of -$299 million [11][10]. Profitability and Valuation - Five9 is the least profitable company in its industry, with a negative net operating profit after tax (NOPAT) of -$5 million in the TTM [15][17]. - To justify its current stock price of $26/share, Five9 would need to achieve $8.5 billion in revenue by 2034, which is nearly 8 times its TTM revenue [20]. - If revenue grows at consensus and industry forecast rates, the stock could be worth just $6/share today, indicating a 77% downside [22]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Microsoft and Nice Ltd. maintain competitive advantages by offering full-service solutions, while Five9 remains focused on niche offerings [18]. - Analysts expect Five9's revenue growth to lag behind the projected 22% compounded annual growth rate of the cloud-based contact center market from 2025 to 2034 [14].
Rivian's Growth Story Screeches To A Halt
Forbes· 2025-05-28 18:20
Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive, Inc. is facing significant challenges, including high cash burn, declining market share, and overvaluation, which make it a risky investment despite recent stock price increases. Group 1: Financial Performance - Rivian's vehicle deliveries grew only 3% year-over-year from 50,122 in 2023 to 51,579 in 2024, indicating slowing growth [4] - The company produced 14,611 and delivered 8,640 vehicles in Q1 2025, exceeding previous guidance [5] - Rivian's total operating costs were 229% of revenue in 2023 and 194% in 2024, leading to substantial losses [16] Group 2: Market Position - Rivian's U.S. market share peaked at 5.0% in Q3 2023 but fell to 2.9% in Q1 2025, reflecting a loss of competitive edge [9] - The company’s deliveries in Q1 2025 dropped 37% year-over-year from 13,588 in Q1 2024 to 8,553 [8] Group 3: Cash Burn and Valuation - Since 2020, Rivian has burned $32.5 billion in free cash flow, which is 159% of its enterprise value [12] - Rivian's current stock price of $14 implies it must generate $124.4 billion in revenue by 2035, which is highly unlikely given industry competition [23][25] - The company has an economic book value of -$39 per share, suggesting that equity investors may not see any economic earnings under normal operations [33] Group 4: Investment Risks - Rivian's interest coverage ratio is currently -13.6, indicating severe financial strain [13] - The company is classified as a "Zombie Stock," with a cash burn rate that could lead to bankruptcy without further investment [10][11]