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Balanced Take on POST's FY25 EBITDA Outlook: Will It Hit the Target?
ZACKSยท 2025-06-27 16:25
Core Insights - Post Holdings, Inc. (POST) has raised its full-year fiscal 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $1.43 billion to $1.47 billion, reflecting management's confidence in recovering costs related to avian influenza [1][8] - The company expects to recoup $30 million in avian flu-related costs by fiscal year-end, indicating a proactive approach to managing operational challenges [1][8] - Despite ongoing softness in consumer consumption across key categories, the guidance revision highlights POST's reliance on execution levers, price realization, cost discipline, and supply-chain stabilization to support profitability [3][5] Financial Performance - The revised EBITDA guidance indicates internal momentum, particularly in supply-constrained categories like eggs and refrigerated sides, where the company has historically faced restrictions [4] - In comparison to industry peers, many of whom are revising forecasts downward, POST's ability to slightly increase its guidance suggests a differentiated level of execution [5] - The company's shares have lost 5.8% in the past three months, underperforming the industry decline of 5.1% and the broader Consumer Staples sector's decline of 0.4% [6] Market Position - Post Holdings currently trades at a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.84, which is below the industry average of 15.69 and the sector average of 17.31, positioning the stock at a modest discount relative to peers [10]