Market Analysis & Predictions - The analysis indicates a 60-70% probability that Bitcoin's cycle top has already occurred, considering the weekly close below the 50-week moving average and the late stage of the cycle [10] - A potential scenario involves a bear market with Bitcoin dropping approximately 50% to the 60-70K range, aligning with the 200-week moving average, but the analysis anticipates a smaller drawdown compared to previous cycles due to the absence of a euphoria phase [19][20] - The analysis suggests that if the cycle top is in, a rally back to the 200-day moving average is expected at some point [14][15] - The analysis posits that if Bitcoin rallies back above 103K, the odds of a continued bull market would revert to 50/50; however, a second weekly close below the 50-week moving average would significantly increase the likelihood of the cycle top being in [22][30] - The analysis suggests that if the cycle is not over, a sizable rally should occur within the next few days following the death cross; failure to rally would indicate a higher probability of the cycle top being in [33][35] Technical Indicators & Historical Patterns - Bitcoin's weekly close below the 50-week moving average is historically a negative indicator, often signaling the end of the cycle in prior post-halving Q4s [3][4] - Historically, weekly closes below the 50-week moving average in post-halving years have preceded a drop to the 200-week moving average [5] - Death crosses often coincide with local lows, but this pattern may not hold true at the end of the cycle [10][12][13] - The 200-day moving average is expected to play a significant role, regardless of whether the cycle top is in [16] Risk Management & Future Outlook - The analysis emphasizes the importance of respecting the current market conditions and preparing for a potential bear market, with the 200-week moving average as a key focus for the coming months [36] - The analysis suggests that a potential outcome involves Bitcoin dropping to the 200-week moving average and then backtesting a trend line around mid-2026 [37]