Market Invalidation Conditions - A clear bear market would be indicated by Bitcoin crashing approximately 40% from its all-time high (ATH) and remaining depressed for several months without recovery [1] - A significant negative shift in overall market macro conditions would also invalidate the bullish outlook [1] Crypto Market Dynamics - Historically, crypto often lags behind other markets like stocks and commodities in similar scenarios [1] - Past examples include sell pressure after ETF launches and German government BTC sales [1] - An unknown entity is currently offloading tokens, potentially linked to the October 10 liquidation event [1] - Similar to GBTC and German government sales, the selling entity will eventually exhaust its holdings [1] - Crypto is expected to catch up once the selling pressure subsides, assuming favorable macro conditions persist [1] Macroeconomic Outlook - Current indications suggest that macro conditions will remain favorable in the foreseeable future [1]