Gold Market Analysis - Gold climbed over 50% in 2025 and is holding above $4,000, driven by the debasement trade [1] - Central banks, including China, India, Turkey, and smaller countries, are diversifying into gold, moving away from the dollar due to geopolitical concerns [5] - Momentum traders and those fearing global collapse are contributing to the gold surge [6] - Gold miners are up 100% this year, indicating a second phase after gold bullion [9] - Silver is considered a "meme cousin" of gold, with its rise seen as a degenerate gambling ploy rather than an industrial play [10] - Young investors are switching from Bitcoin to gold, believing it will hold value if the dollar collapses [15] - Gold is viewed as a trade and a store of value over very long periods, not necessarily an inflation hedge [17][18] Alternative Investment Opportunities - Trade Desk (TTD) is highlighted as a "Liberation Day loser" due to concerns about Amazon DSP, but it remains the only independent ad-buying platform, with CTV (streaming TV ads) representing half of its revenues [22][23] - FICO (Fair Isaac) is another "Liberation Day loser" facing political noise, but is now going direct [23][24] - Shift4 (FOUR) is a major player in the move to cashless payments, expanding into verticals like stadiums and tax-free shopping in Europe [24][25][26]

Precious Metals Market Analysis - Central banks are diversifying into gold and silver, treating them as an asset class [2] - Institutional investors are showing increased interest in gold, with some suggesting allocations of up to 20% of a portfolio [2] - China's gold holdings are at record highs, while their Treasury holdings have decreased [4] - Silver's price has significant upside potential relative to inflation-adjusted highs [5] - Silver has underperformed gold by 40% over the last 20 years, suggesting a potential catch-up trade [8] Factors Influencing Market Dynamics - Every $10 billion of gold demand equals a 3% move in the price [3] - Dollar weakness has stabilized, leading to institutional allocation driving gold's price movement [3] - Central bank differentials are catching up, impacting the dollar's strength [10] - Being short on the dollar was a crowded trade at the beginning of the year [12] Gold Mining Companies - Gold miners typically have a beta of 2 to 3 during periods of rising gold prices [9] - Upgrades are expected for gold miners due to their free cash flow yields [9]