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Trump's false claims about jobs report going to have economic consequences: CNBC analyst
MSNBCยท 2025-08-04 20:40
Labor Statistics & Political Influence - President Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erica McInterer due to a miscalculation that dropped jobs added by more than 250,000 [1] - The White House justified the move by claiming the data has become very unreliable, especially when revisions are bigger than the numbers themselves [2] - Concerns arise that appointing political loyalists to statistical agencies could lead to manipulated data, impacting economic policy decisions [11][12][13] - Manipulation of data in countries like Turkey, Venezuela, Argentina, and Greece has led to negative economic consequences like hyperinflation or recession [14][17] Data Accuracy & Methodology - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) conducts monthly surveys of tens of thousands of businesses and American households to determine job creation and unemployment rate [3] - Data revisions are a normal part of the process as more data is collected, aligning with private sector data [5][6] - BLS data has been getting more accurate faster than it has been throughout history [7] - Uncertainty caused by tariffs can create log jams in cargo shipping and freeze hiring, impacting the accuracy of BLS surveys [8] Funding & Data Collection - Underfunding departments that collect critical economic data can lead to less accurate numbers [18][19] - Investing in these agencies, upgrading technology, and increasing staff can improve the quality and timeliness of data [19][22] - Combining government sector data (BLS) with private sector information (like ADP) can provide a more comprehensive view [22][23] Economic Impact & Trade - The US has lost 116,000 manufacturing jobs in the last year and only grown $35,000 worth of jobs in the last three months, primarily in the healthcare sector [10] - Tariffs on steel, aluminum, rain boots, and umbrellas create uncertainty and impact hiring [8] - BLS advises the president on the impact of tariffs, indicating that inflation is up [9]