Key Points The recent slide in the price of Bitcoin has weakened the argument that it should be viewed as "digital gold." Historically, Bitcoin has tended to move in four-year cycles, punctuated by periods of boom and bust. For long-term investors with a five-year time horizon or longer, Bitcoin still makes sense as a high upside investment. 10 stocks we like better than Bitcoin › This is the year that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was supposed to double in value. It had every possible catalyst going for ...

Gold and Bitcoin have both been seen as beneficiaries of the "debasement trade" - as "insurance" assets for your wider broader portfolio, to the point where Bitcoin is sometimes described as "digital" gold. But how similar are they really? https://t.co/L7OstN2eQK ...

RT Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4)Bitcoin since its inception has been climbing a learning curve : every year more long-term savers and investors learn about its superiority as a trust-minimized and dilution-minimized store of value. Its dominant signal thus resembles the price action of hot NASDAQ companies that are also climbing learning curves. And like hot stocks, that climb invites debt-funded speculation and the resulting volatility. Other signals are real and there but tend to get buried in the by the domin ...

RT Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4)Bitcoin since its inception has been climbing a learning curve : every year more long-term savers and investors learn about its superiority as a trust-minimized and dilution-minimized store of value. Its dominant signal thus resembles the price action of hot NASDAQ companies that are also climbing learning curves. And like hot stocks, that climb invites debt-funded speculation and the resulting volatility. Other signals are real and there but tend to get buried in the by the domin ...

🚨 NEW: Hedge fund manager James Lavish says the “debasement trade” has gone mainstream as institutions turn to Bitcoin. https://t.co/SrD6Fs5jHf ...

Gold prices continued to decline Monday while stocks galloped to fresh record territory, stirring doubts about the precious metal’s massive rally. Until a few weeks ago, gold looked unstoppable as it blew through record high after record high and at one point was up more than 60% for the year. But since peaking earlier this month, prices are down 9%, hovering around $4,000 per ounce. Some on Wall Street tried to explain the surge in gold demand by citing the desire to shift away from dollar-denominated a ...

Group 1 - Bill Gross, a prominent bond investor, advises caution regarding gold investments despite its recent surge, while highlighting concerns over budget deficits and a slowing economy [1][3] - Disclosures from Zions Bancorporation and Western Alliance Bancorp regarding problematic borrowers have raised concerns, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon suggesting that these issues may indicate deeper problems within regional banks [2] - Gross predicts that the current market reaction to regional bank issues is exaggerated, expecting Treasury yields to rise above 4.01% due to significant government debt issuance needed to address budget shortfalls [3][4] Group 2 - Gold prices have increased over 50% this year and have doubled since early 2024, with other precious metals like silver, platinum, and palladium also experiencing substantial gains [5] - Market expert Ed Yardeni suggests that gold could reach $10,000 per ounce by the end of the decade if the current trend continues, although Gross believes that gold's recent performance appears overextended [5][6] - Gross characterizes gold as a momentum asset and recommends waiting before investing, echoing sentiments from Capital Economics regarding the challenges in objectively valuing gold amid rising "FOMO" in the market [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around macroeconomic factors affecting global markets, particularly focusing on the US-China trade tensions, currency stability, and the precious metals market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **US-China Trade Tensions** - President Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on China is viewed as a negotiating tactic rather than an imminent policy change. The expectation is for a continuation of the current tariff pause beyond November 10, with limited concessions from both sides [1][4][11] - The potential outcomes of the trade negotiations could vary widely, including both increased concessions and the risk of new export restrictions and higher tariffs [1][4] 2. **Currency Stability** - Despite the ongoing government shutdown affecting key US data, the USD/CNY exchange rate has remained stable, indicating a preference for currency stability by Chinese policymakers. This trend is expected to continue in the near term [2][9] 3. **Debasement Trade in Markets** - The "debasement trade," characterized by a shift from Dollar-denominated assets to precious metals, is anticipated to persist. The expectation is for the Dollar to weaken further due to less exceptional US growth compared to other G10 economies, ongoing tariff threats, and concerns about institutional credibility [3][4] - Gold prices have reached all-time highs, with expectations for further increases driven by inflows from Western ETF buyers and central banks. Silver is also expected to rise, but with greater volatility and downside risk compared to gold [3][5][6] 4. **Impact of Government Shutdown** - The ongoing US government shutdown is set to disrupt key economic data releases, which may affect market sentiment and investment decisions [9][10] 5. **Japanese Political Dynamics** - The withdrawal of the Komeito party from its coalition with the LDP is being monitored, with predictions suggesting a low probability of large-scale fiscal expansion in the near term. This political shift may impact the Japanese Yen's performance [9][10] 6. **Earnings Reporting Season** - The Q3 earnings reporting season is underway, with expectations that S&P 500 earnings growth will exceed the consensus estimate of 6% year-over-year. European firms are expected to report earnings in line with consensus, but those exposed to the US market may face greater tariff impacts compared to previous quarters [9][10] 7. **World Portfolio Strategy** - There is a focus on a diversified investment strategy through the World Portfolio, which encompasses all global assets. The analysis suggests that following benchmarks may not always yield optimal results, and a more tailored approach could improve risk-adjusted returns [10][11] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the importance of alternative data during the government shutdown and highlights the potential for better European growth benefiting domestic market segments [9][10] - The analysis of the precious metals market indicates a clear beneficiary in the South African Rand (ZAR) due to its undervaluation and high carry, while the Indian Rupee (INR) is seen as vulnerable in the foreign exchange space [5][6]

Market Trend - The gold jewelry market is influenced by the debasement trade, suggesting a potential investment strategy during certain economic cycles [1]

Gold Market Analysis - Gold is seen as a viable alternative to the dollar, especially with the acceleration of de-dollarization driven by sanctions and concerns about US fiscal policy [2] - Mainstream investors are starting to participate in the gold market, with major Wall Street banks recommending gold exposure in portfolios [2] - Central banks are expected to continue buying gold, competing with private investors and driving prices higher [4] - The dollar is expected to lose value, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates into rising inflation, further driving demand for gold [4] - China's central bank is divesting from US dollars and treasuries, replacing them with gold reserves to establish an independent monetary system [4] - The debasement trade narrative is taking hold as people recognize the flawed nature of CPI and seek assets that retain value [4][5] - Gold investors have outperformed US stock market investors, especially when pricing stocks in gold [3][4] Bitcoin vs Gold - Bitcoin is considered a risk asset correlated with the NASDAQ, while gold is seen as a safe haven store of value [8] - There is a risk of money flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs back into gold ETFs and gold stocks [1][8] - Bitcoin treasury companies may face downside risk and potential liquidation of their Bitcoin holdings [9] US Economic Policy - The Trump administration receives a failing grade (F) on economic policy due to massive government spending and deficits [13] - Tariffs are viewed as taxes that make American industry less competitive [14][15] - The speaker advocates for balanced budgets, debt restructuring, and deregulation to address fundamental economic problems [21][22][25]