Geopolitical Risk & US Foreign Policy - The US President faces a dilemma regarding Iran, not wanting to enter a war but also unable to end the current conflict [1][2] - A diplomatic off-ramp is being sought, potentially involving the Vice President [3] - Previous US administrations have consistently stated that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, but these efforts have failed [5] - The US withdrawal from the 2018 Iran nuclear agreement has brought Iran closer to obtaining a nuclear weapon [6] - Military options exist, such as using bunker buster bombs to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, but the long-term consequences are uncertain [7] - The US administration may succumb to Israeli pressure to enter the war, which could significantly damage Iran's nuclear program, but would likely lead to increased oil prices (over $100 a barrel) and Iranian strikes against US forces and Saudi infrastructure [9] - There are no good responses to the Iran situation, creating a dilemma for the US administration [13] Oil Market & Shipping - Oil prices are expected to rise above $100 a barrel if the US enters the war [9] - Jamming of transmissions in the Gulf of Oman is causing collisions between oil tankers [10] - Iran has asymmetrical policies to create confusion, such as actions in the Red Sea by the Houthis [11] - Houthi actions have forced international shipping to avoid the Suez Canal, costing Egypt hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue and adding three weeks to trips around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing insurance rates and consumer goods costs [12]