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Why QQQ Bulls May Want to Stay Hopeful
Schaeffers Investment Researchยท 2025-08-26 16:24
Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Big Tech stocks, particularly Palantir Technologies and Nvidia, has led to significant losses in the broader market, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards technology stocks [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq-100 Index experienced a 1.4% drop, testing and breaching the 23,000 level before reclaiming it [2]. - The Invesco QQQ Trust faced a six-day losing streak, marking its longest slump in over three years [2]. Group 2: Historical Data Analysis - Historical data shows that after the last 11 instances of the QQQ experiencing six consecutive losses, it averaged an 8.1% gain three months later, with notable surges of 16.4% in August 2015 and 11.4% in February 2016 [6]. - The average returns following six-day losing streaks are 1.83% for one week, 2.48% for two weeks, 2.73% for one month, and 8.13% for three months, with a 100% positive return rate over three months [7]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - The immediate outlook for the QQQ is less optimistic, with initial gains post-signal expected to be 2.7% or less, suggesting that quick returns may not be feasible for tech traders [9]. - A potential rebound could see the QQQ rise above $609, indicating a return to record high territory if historical trends hold true [9]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - A dovish Federal Reserve and a potential tech bounce are contributing to upward movements in major indexes, although inflation data in the coming weeks may introduce volatility [10]. - The resilience of Big Tech will be crucial in determining whether the QQQ can achieve substantial gains by the three-month mark [10].